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COMMENT
Market Outlook Q4 was the worst for the resource sector since 2008. It is now setting us up for a good 2019. WCS differentials are likely unsustainable at these tight levels around $9. He expects the WCS discount to be $20-$25 US/bbl and light barrels to be discounted by $10-$15 US/bbl range. About 325,000 barrels per day is curtailed as part of the Alberta government policy -- about what the market is long in Canada right now. Then when Enbridge Line 3 comes on around later in the year it will also be supportive. The US dollar has come of its peaks and he thinks this will help gold prices -- he thinks gold will get to $1350 US/oz. This will be good for gold stocks in 2019.
DON'T BUY
Their plans for an Alaskan mine development saw some life in November when the new Governor there showed he was more pro-development. Unfortunately the cost to develop in this region is so great and one of the partners dropped out last year. How do you finance it, especially when environmentalists are against it?
precious metals
COMMENT
Hudbay vs Teck. These are two different companies. Teck being more focused on coal, copper and zinc. Hudbay is more copper and zinc. He would prefer Teck. As these do not provide any yield, he does not stay on top of these ones. He would stay on the sidelines for these given the trade issues globally. The next Presidential election will likely help define the future -- it will be uncertain until then. China will continue to be a big consumer and supply is being curtailed at these low commodity prices. The inventory situation will be improving over time, but it is still too early.
precious metals
COMMENT
Hudbay vs Teck. These are two different companies. Teck being more focused on coal, copper and zinc. Hudbay is more copper and zinc. He would prefer Teck. As these do not provide any yield, he does not stay on top of these ones. He would stay on the sidelines for these given the trade issues globally. The next Presidential election will likely help define the future -- it will be uncertain until then. China will continue to be a big consumer and supply is being curtailed at these low commodity prices. The inventory situation will be improving over time, but it is still too early.
Mining
DON'T BUY
They have had everything go wrong that could. Losing the social license in Guatemala for their silver mine and other issues. Pan American has come in being very opportunistic to give a relatively low-ball bid. There may be some value opportunities going forward, but he would prefer to not have to wait to see that develop. He sees better opportunities.
Mining
DON'T BUY
They have had everything go wrong that could. Losing the social license in Guatemala for their silver mine and other issues. Pan American has come in being very opportunistic to give a relatively low-ball bid. There may be some value opportunities going forward, but he would prefer to not have to wait to see that develop. He sees better opportunities.
precious metals
WATCH
A company that has struggled with large mines that take so long to get going. Rainy River has been their Achilles heel. They put out a good update, but one quarter does not make the mine. He wants to see several quarters of success. Patience is needed, but there is still significant risk for this project.
precious metals
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 08/18, Down 7%) Compared to the gold space in general the result is not disappointing. A small starter, low cost mine in Nova Scotia that he expects may eventually become an acquisition target. He wants to see them develop the project carefully. He will continue to hold it.
precious metals
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 08/18, Down 40%) Up to Q4 it was looking pretty good, but with differentials widening it got hammered. The stock price has not responded well since the differentials have tightened. He likes their low decline rate. They shut-in about 15% of their production. They did the prudent thing by cutting the dividend. He continues to hold it. Yield 5%.
oil
gas
BUY
A premiere holding in the Canadian energy space and a core holding. They are now over the big capex spend for the Fort Hills project and now should benefit from free cash-flow for the next few years. He likes where they are positioned. They are more expensive than others and he likes the growing dividend. You buy this and tuck it away.
integrated oils
