PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 19/18, Down 29%) Gold prices did not do well in 2018. He thinks this is very cheap right now and thinks he can suffer this out and fundamentals will eventually improve. Governments around the world are struggling and he thinks it is inevitable that gold will recover. He thinks everyone should hold 10% gold in their portfolio.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 19/18, Up 10%) This is now absorbed into the Enbridge parent company. It was cheaper than the ENB-T at the time.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 19/18, Down 3%) It has performed better than the TSX as a whole. It was one of the cheapest banks at the time. He thinks the Canadian banks are the best in the world, due to its stringent regulations.
COMMENT
The markets slid today and this week. If you have the proper portfolio in place, don't worry. If you were chasing the flavour of the day, like the FAANGs, then you're bleeding. But if you're fully diversified, you're fine because those winners offset those stocks that fell. He's up (in his portfolio) for the year. He's seen gains in Europe and Asia. He avoids stocks that correlate with each other. So, if he owns TD, then that covers US and Canadian banks, and he will hold no other Canadian bank. He holds 20% cash. For bonds, he builds laddered-bond portfolios of 10 years or more. As interest rates have risen, something matures each year that is rolled over into a higher coupon. He's in corporate U.S. bonds.
DON'T BUY
Buy it for the dividend? No. Earnings are not growing. Their vape products are flat and falling; volumes are decreasing. The dividend isn't growing much either, at only 5% yearly vs. 8% for the wider market. If they don't execute on their plans, you could get more pain down the road. The dividend is outgrowing their free cash flow, so down the road their payout ratio will become too high.
HOLD
The future is still bright, despite the current noise. Small caps are always volatile. A slowdown in U.S. housing and steel tariffs are headwinds. Nothing wrong with owning this; don't worry about the price fluctuations. Remember, it offers 20% dividend growth yearly. They're also in the water purification business which hasn't hit its bottom line yet.
BUY
Their earnings report was weak with adjusted net earnings down 12%. They own assets in the US and Canada, so cross-border shipping is not a problem. Also have an Australian business which will serve Chinese demand for milk later. Dividend has grown 10% a year over past year and has slowed down a bit lately as they've made acquisitions. You can buy this for your TFSA and tuck it away.
DON'T BUY
Doesn't like the company. The stock has been suffering for the past decade. They're in furniture and bicycles, both businesses under pressure. Dividend hasn't grown.
BUY
Pay a withholding tax in a TFSA? Not if it's in an RRSP, but yes in a TFSA. He likes this. They make medical devices. A small cap that's done very well with a dividend growing 10% a year for 20 years. Strong free cash flow. They're in the right industry as we head into a recession-type economy, because medical equipment companies will hold their own. They don't disappoint.
COMMENT
What ETF to buy that focuses in on industrials, particularly something in Japan? Can't afford stocks, just ETFs. Buy 1 Canada, 1 U.S. and 1 international, the latter for Japan exposure. Make them all big indexes to avoid price slippage that you'd find in a more concentrated ETF.
PARTIAL BUY
Two-year outlook? He doesn't do two-years. He invests long, like Buffet. The US-China trade war is on, and tech stocks are under pressure. Those are two headwinds. And if interest rates continue to rise, we'll walk into a recession. Tech stocks have high beta, so don't buy them; too much volatility. Buy half a position in BABA and see what happens.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 01/17, Down 7%) A small-cap industrial (that makes fuses), so there'll be volatility. Demand is good and they are nicely diversified. They boast 15% earnings and dividend growths, with free cash flow growing 20% yearly. He still believes in this, and has long held it. Last quarter, profits were up 15%.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 01/17, Down 12%) A quality testing firm, like toys and clothines. Demand for this is growing because of stricter regulations around the world. Raising dividend at 20%. A huge cash-flow generator. Now is a good entry point. A UK company, but 60% of revenues are outside Europe. so if the UK economy slows down, they'll get paid in foreign currencies.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 01/17, Up 33%) They kill insects, so they benefit from hurricanes, earthquakes, etc. ROL was shorted this week by a firm because ROL was trading at a high 50x earnings. They're growing nicely. Dividend has been growing at 25%.
COMMENT
How to buy an ETF When you consider an ETF, look at its weightings, the tracking error (how the ETF moves vs. the stocks themselves) and the MER. He owns no ETFs. he prefers stocks; you make the return minus the fee.