DON'T BUY
Sold it 18 months ago, because there weren't enough pipelines to take away natural gas in western Canada, just like the oil problem. Also, nat. gas production in U.S. can be shipped closer to U.S. destinations instead of shipping it from western Canada. There's no easy solution to this. We won't get an L&G terminal in BC in 2023, though it's a glimmer of hope.
DON'T BUY
The dividend isn't sustainable, now at 15%. The market has already priced in a dividend cut. He sold his shares in 2016. They blew their brains out on the WGL purchase, then the CEO left. Tax-loss selling is kicking in. But don't sell it now. A new CEO starts at Dec. 13 who may cut the dividend, and ALA may benefit from the January effect. But long-term, don't own this.
WATCH
Respects the brand and managers. He feels that managers will correct relations with franchisees. And QSR will make more acquisitions. He's watching this, but not ready to buy yet.
TOP PICK
A core holding. RY is the dominant Canadian bank (commercial and personal) and has the premier wealth management franchise. Insurance and investor/treasury services business nicely round out their operations. They're also nicely diversified by geography, such as the U.S. A leader in e-banking and an emerging leader in A.I. They can build a sustainable, competitive advantage with their large scale of operations. They can sustain their 4% dividend and 7% increase. (Analysts’ price target is $110.48)
TOP PICK
A stable business, the largest convenience store operating in North American, with further outlets in Europe. Their strategy is to price sharply on oil to draw traffic, then lure those customers to buy items like soft drinks and cigarettes where the gross margin is 3-5x higher than gas. Boasts good organic growth with a history of purchases--more to come in Asia which should catapult them past 7-11. (Analysts’ price target is $79.33)
TOP PICK
Canada's largest integrated oil company, including long-running assets in the Oil Sands. It's one of the few oil producers he owns. Suncor is insulated from WCS price drops. They own four refineries and 1,750 gas stations. (Analysts’ price target is $59.48)
COMMENT
Huge sell-off and volatility today. Investors catastrophize everything, thinking of 1987 or 2008. He's seen countless corrections over the years. People panic. Keep an eye on the long-term. Also hold bonds in your portfolio. Now, we're in a normal correction phase of around 10%. There's no reason to dump your stock. Trade deals don't drive markets--earnings do. As of last month, earnings were up 9% year-over-year. Panic is not a strategy--you must manage that emotion, and have a plan. He's enthusiastic about tech stocks.
COMMENT
A problem with low-vol ETFs is that people want this at once, which drives the prices up. That said, they are normally a good way to go, but watch the price.
COMMENT
Buy tech stocks now? It's time to get back into tech stocks. Except for MSFT, these stocks have been beaten up. Amazon, for example, is doing well, though he's not a fan of Facebook. Also, these are not for the conservative investor.
COMMENT
Long-duration bonds? He wouldn't buy any long bonds because they'll get hit by rising interest rates. He'd buy only very short duration, floating rate and/or high-grade bonds. It's a place to park money during volatility.
BUY
Buy bank stocks as bond proxies? He likes Canadian banks, especially with covered calls like ZWB. Pricey at 75 basis points, but he has directly seen the value that BMO provides to this ETF. This isn't a bond substitute, but he's rather be paid 4% (dividend) after some dopey high-yield fund or ETF. But he wouldn't hold more than a 10% weighting in Canadian banks.
COMMENT
Which healthcare ETF? HHL or FXH. Both are covered calls and hold large U.S. healthcare (pharma, hospitals). Problem is, you're sacrificing growth for yield (around 7% because of the covered call premium). Do you want growth or income? If not, look at XLV, a very low cost MER. He prefers the U.S. healthcare over Canada. Also, ZUH-T which has a Canadian dollar version, hedged and diversified. Note: Some ETF's are more diversified than others; you want more than just pharma. Also, watch the cost (MER); he prefers under 15 basis points.
BUY
Or buy ZWD instead? He likes it because it has both Canadian and American utilities, and it has a covered call. The only problem with utilities is that they can't raise revenues (pass them onto the consumer) when interest rates rise.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 20/17, Up 3%) One of the few Canadian things he likes. Industrials will still do well in Canada, despite our oil patch disaster. Still holds it.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 20/17, Up 1%) Likes this because it focuses on industrials, getting away from energy, financials and materials which dominate the TSX. This offers diversification.