COMMENT
The Santa rally is up 83% of the time, 30 years on the TSX, up 1.4% on average. Sometimes there is a January Effect, which is the tendency for stocks to bounce after tax-loss selling season. Don't hang your hat onto these events too much, but these rallies tend to happen. He is pivoting his investments into defensive stocks as we are in the end of the cycle: REITs, grocers, utilities.
SELL
Owned it a few years ago and cut his losses. Now, cut your losses. This business is struggling as an asset manager, specifically to retain and attract new clients. Also, their key managers, including the CEO, have been leaving. They won't generate much in performance fees, which has been an attraction for investors in the past.
DON'T BUY
It's exposed to cyclical, industrial commodities. TECK produces metallurgical coal, steel and copper. They also have a stake in the Ft. Hills Oil Sands project. All these are tied to industrial production. World demand for these commodities could decrease in 2019. Given TECK's operating leverage, a 1-2% move in commodity prices could hurt their earnings 5-10%.
BUY
Threatened by online shopping? He likes it, because it dominates grocers in Canada with good real estate. It's a little vulnerable to online shopping, but grocers like Loblaw won't be affected much. Also, Loblaw has click-and-collect e-shopping where a customer orders groceries online then picks them up. He expects double-digit earnings growth after Loblaw absorbs minimum wage hikes and provincial drug reform and inflation from transportation costs. He'd buy it here.
DON'T BUY
It's a case on not buying stocks at an IPO. IPO expectations were too high, and Roots has struggled since then. There are forecasts that in 2020 it will earn 73-cents a share vs. 90 cents at the IPO. Managers overpromised at the IPO, so the stock got punished. It trades at 5.6x enterprise value to EBITDA, lower than its peers. But he fears that expectations are still wildly unrealistic. Doesn't see 49% earnings growth in a time when sales are moderating.
BUY
Likes this, because 96% of their revenues are regulated--guaranteed. They manage 11 regional electric and nat. gas utilities. Very stable demand. They have big capital expansion projects in Arizona, northern Ontario and elsewhere. A great homegrown story. Very well-managed.
DON'T BUY
Not fond of it. His worry is the lack of regional diversity. (It's based in Quebec.) They also lack a wealth management business. They stumbled last year when they suffered a scandal over mortgage underwriting that rattled investor confidence.
BUY

Has owned this for five years. Great growth, bigger and more diversified than ever. But the last three quarters underperformed. They bought Innovia in 2016 and have struggled to integrate it. But their major input cost is resin, so the current decline in oil prices will reduce costs and raise earnings. A lot of their products go into consumer packaged goods, which are not cyclical and won't get hit in a downturn.

DON'T BUY
It's done well, as all airlines have. But he's not in this industry. Airlines are very cyclical with high fixed costs (e.g. airport landing fees, unions). Then again, this is seen as an anti-oil trade. So, you can own a big consumer of oil--airlines. He sides with the former and avoids this space entirely.
PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 30/17, Up 12%) There are $500 million of synergies up for grabs after the big merger, which could even be higher. They are ahead of plan in synergizing. Also are selling $5 billion of non-core assets. This week in Chile, they just sold a lithium mine, generating $4 billion in cash that'll go to share buybacks and dividends. There are big gains still to come.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 30/17, Down 14%) Midstream energy has been challenging. IPL runs several businesses: nat. gas extraction which as recovered after depressed margins last year; cash flows coming from oil pipelines; storage which has struggled. When this backwardation clears, the margins should come back. Then there's a $3.5 billion propane dehydrogenation plant that'll be a great asset, that will crank out $600 million in operating profit yearly starting in late-2021. Until then, you'll pocket the dividend above 7%.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 30/17, Up 0.1%) It's tread water as the overall markets have been down the past year. It pays a 4% dividend which consistently grows 7%. Good returns over the course of a cycle, though maybe not every year.
DON'T BUY
An enigma. Sure, their managers have grown a small company into one of the largest software companies on the TSX. Doesn't trust them, because their reporting is not transparent. Also, this is a heavy growth by acquisition story, which itself is fine, but we are in a time of rising interest rates that will weigh on this stock.
DON'T BUY
He'd like to get interested in this, but he's not there. It's pulled back, because traffic to movie theatres has been declining (given streamers like Netflix). To its credit, Cineplex is pro-active--it has opened the Rec Room (food, dining, videogames, karaoke) and offering the VIP Lounges and serving alcohol in Ontario. Also offering digital tickets to appeal to the young. He won't jump in until they meet or exceed earnings. They just had a disastrous quarter. Too early to enter this.
BUY
Why is it falling? Has long owned it and still likes it. Why falling? Becuase banks are a leveraged play on the Canadian economy. We are going into decelerated economic growth after it was speeding it. No, this is not heading to recession, just slowing down. Earnings growth is decreasing. But don't sell it. The dividend grows 7% annually. You won't make money in bank stocks every year, but add the dividend growth and dividend.