Market. He thinks the emerging market jitters is a leading indicator for market sentiment -- an indicator of market liquidity. Another indicator is peak debt issuance. A lot of little signs, including slowing global growth. He sees the cannabis mania as the play out of the “greater fool” theory. He thinks the TSX is breaching keep support levels and thinks there is further down side yet to come. He is 25% cash right now.
This is a mid-cap company. You have to be careful as a deposit franchise like this are under pressure as competition is increasing on margins in deposits. He thinks credit provisions may soon tighten for deposit holders and this could be the nail in the coffin. He would wait until it trades above $14 to become interested.
They have a good cash float, which will lead to a share buyback, he feels. He sees resistance at $90-$100, which will be tough to battle through. He would suggest taking a loss if you hold this one, because the future capex requirements will be more expensive as interest rates rise. He would prefer IHI-N if you like the healthcare space as he does.
This is the best of the financial sector stocks, he feels. It has a great dividend and strong balance sheet. If the macro economies do well it will too. They can do buybacks and trades at 1.75 to book value. He thinks national credit provisions for losses will be a key sell signal – when they tighten, get out. Yield 2%.