TOP PICK

They are in the Cardium formation. They sold a non-core asset and will use the proceeds to accelerate their Cardium program. He expects production to rise from 4900 to 5100 boe by the end of the year. Cash flow this year was about 53 cents. The balance sheet is in good shape. His 12-month price target is $3.60. Yield 0%.(Analysts’ price target is $2.92)

TOP PICK

Don Gray (from Payto Energy) is their CEO and a major shareholder. Their production is 71% natural gas. They are in Spirit River and also increasing in the Cardium area. Book value was $2.72 at the end of the year. Cash flow is 78 cents compared to a 90 stock price. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $1.66)

TOP PICK

He would rather see this company stay independent--its metrics are better than either Precision or Ensign (the two companies bidding for Trinidad). However, he sees the combination of Trinidad with Precision is a good deal. He thinks Ensign might come back with a higher bid, creating a bidding rivalry. His price target is $7. If the company is bought by Precision, he would roll over, to become a shareholder of Precision. Note: Precision’s debt to equity is high, almost 1 to 1. Ensign offers a dividend but also has a much higher debt than Trinidad. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $2.34)

COMMENT

Market. It has been a tough slog in Canada so far this year. Valuation multiples are reaching drastic lows across different sectors. Even after the NAFTA agreement, which is surprising. There is a velocity shock with rates in the US moving at the 10-year term from 2.85% to 3.25%. It takes a while usually for markets to digest this rapid movements. They are remaining cautious but constructive on the market here. In some companies they see 30-35% compression in their multiples with earnings growing at 5%. They feel those are buying opportunities. It feels that money is leaving Canada, but that tide will turn once valuations get to a certain level and people get more confident that things are happening in Canada.

BUY

A lot of momentum in the first part of the year. They made three big deals. Largest player in the space. Everybody knows their Poker Stars brand and they want to use it to get into other segments. They are excited about this Canadian name. Trading at ten times next year earnings. Even as they are leveraged, he thinks the valuation is compelling.

HOLD

They are digesting a lot of changes in their business. Many write downs on their books. They think there is going to be a rally in the TSX for Q4 in Canadian Banks and they think this stock should participate. Not many red flags when they looked at it. Trading at 7 times earnings with a 6% dividend yield.

HOLD

Tech sector down in the US from its June peak and that translate into some Canadian companies in the sector like this one. They are due for another acquisition in his opinion. They are taking a new approach now with the new CEO focusing on return on invested capital. Very good long-term capital allocator. (Analysts’ price target is $57.00)

DON'T BUY

One of the curses of the pipelines is growth because it means that they have to raise capital. They have growth projects with the need to raise capital. They prefer Enbridge (ENB-T) as they came of the other side of this funding need now.

BUY

Just exit their position on this stock because gold price is difficult to predict. The number one company in the sector. Not cheap but the execute well. Top notch management team. Almost not debt. Strong company. He thinks it will come back to their highs.

HOLD

One of the top capital allocators. Valuation is stretched. They continue to growth organically. Lots of recurring business. They dominate the apartments management side of things. He will hold to it. Strong company. It is a little sensitive to the economy, so you have to watch for that.

HOLD

Tricky name. Widely owned. They have to continuously do deals to show good return on invested capital and they might make a mistake. That is his fear on this stock.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick January 8/18 - Down 50%) They met with the management team and felt not so good for their US business. Trading now at level that it is very attractive. A lot of value in the business.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick January 8/18 - Down 1%.) Part of the industrials that experienced massive multiple contraction. Earnings are growing. Lots of cash on the balance sheet. Still like it a lot.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick January 8/18 - Down 12%.) Great Canadian story. Liquidity isn’t great as the owners own 60% of the stock. They reinvest huge amounts of their CF in R&D. Leaders in the industry. Huge opportunity.

BUY

Like any of the Canadian banks he feels they have a place in the portfolio. If you are investing for the long-term, this bank is one of the better ones to own. Continue to hold it. They are trading at a five year low on a P/E basis giving you a little of a buffer.