Latest Expert Opinions

Signal
Opinion
Expert
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
October 9, 2018

(A Top Pick December 18, 2017. Down 33%). He was early in his recommendation of this company, but it is doing the right things. It is extending the maturity of its debt. The company was over $3 a year ago. Production in Q2 was up compared to Q1. It will drop for Q3 because of a slowdown in production due to the low AECO prices (see http://www.gasalberta.com/gas-market/market-prices). Q3 will be the trough in production. Bellatrix has just announced a junior acquisition that will add about 2000 boe per day. He expects to see a 40,000 run rate in Q1 with over $1 in cash flow. Book value is $12.11, which is ridiculously higher than the current price. The company is in the Spirit River play, which is liquids-rich. He expects the stock to rise to $7 a year from now.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

(A Top Pick December 18, 2017. Down 33%). He was early in his recommendation of this company, but it is doing the right things. It is extending the maturity of its debt. The company was over $3 a year ago. Production in Q2 was up compared to Q1. It will drop for Q3 because of a slowdown in production due to the low AECO prices (see http://www.gasalberta.com/gas-market/market-prices). Q3 will be the trough in production. Bellatrix has just announced a junior acquisition that will add about 2000 boe per day. He expects to see a 40,000 run rate in Q1 with over $1 in cash flow. Book value is $12.11, which is ridiculously higher than the current price. The company is in the Spirit River play, which is liquids-rich. He expects the stock to rise to $7 a year from now.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
October 9, 2018

(A Top Pick December 18, 2017. Down 25%). The company is about 75% natural gas. They generated cash flow last quarter of 25 cents on 68000 boe per day. He expects 2019 cash flow to grow to $1.08, compared to a share price of $1.47. Book value is $5.78. This will be a significant beneficiary of LNG Canada for 2023, along with Painted Pony, Birchcliff and Tourmaline.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

(A Top Pick December 18, 2017. Down 25%). The company is about 75% natural gas. They generated cash flow last quarter of 25 cents on 68000 boe per day. He expects 2019 cash flow to grow to $1.08, compared to a share price of $1.47. Book value is $5.78. This will be a significant beneficiary of LNG Canada for 2023, along with Painted Pony, Birchcliff and Tourmaline.

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
October 9, 2018

(A Top Pick December 18, 2017. Up 24%). This will be a significant beneficiary of LNG Canada for 2023, along with Painted Pony, Bonavista Energy and Tourmaline. He sees this rising to $9 in 12 months and $15 in the next 3 to 5 years. Production is 80% natural gas. They will raise their liquids percentage with the new wells in Gordondale. Book value is $6.42 so the company is still trading at a discount to book.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

(A Top Pick December 18, 2017. Up 24%). This will be a significant beneficiary of LNG Canada for 2023, along with Painted Pony, Bonavista Energy and Tourmaline. He sees this rising to $9 in 12 months and $15 in the next 3 to 5 years. Production is 80% natural gas. They will raise their liquids percentage with the new wells in Gordondale. Book value is $6.42 so the company is still trading at a discount to book.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
October 9, 2018

They had a recent management change. They sold an asset and so production is down a little. The company is in the process of selling another 50000 boe per day to reduce debt by about $1 billion. The yield at $8 is an attractive 4.4% and the company considers it secure. The company is attractive at this price, but tax loss selling season will be nasty for this stock. He thinks the stock could drop below $7.50. He will recommend it as a buy at $7.50. The 52-week low was $6.66. He is not sure it will drop that far. This company has very good assets and is a name investors should want to own for the long term. Yield 4.4%.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

They had a recent management change. They sold an asset and so production is down a little. The company is in the process of selling another 50000 boe per day to reduce debt by about $1 billion. The yield at $8 is an attractive 4.4% and the company considers it secure. The company is attractive at this price, but tax loss selling season will be nasty for this stock. He thinks the stock could drop below $7.50. He will recommend it as a buy at $7.50. The 52-week low was $6.66. He is not sure it will drop that far. This company has very good assets and is a name investors should want to own for the long term. Yield 4.4%.

BUY
BUY
October 9, 2018

Book value is $5.74. Debt is not a problem: $349 million debt compared to $830 million in equity value. 26% liquids and oil, 74% natural gas. $7 target in the next 12 months. He expects it to drop a little in tax-loss selling season.

Show full opinionHide full opinion
Crew Energy Inc. (CR-T)
October 9, 2018

Book value is $5.74. Debt is not a problem: $349 million debt compared to $830 million in equity value. 26% liquids and oil, 74% natural gas. $7 target in the next 12 months. He expects it to drop a little in tax-loss selling season.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
October 9, 2018

This is a trophy stock. It is one of the best run companies. It was $60 in 2014. Their production is 18% liquids and they are bringing on more liquids. They will be a significant beneficiary of LNG Canada for 2023, along with Painted Pony, Birchcliff and Bonavista. They have increased their dividend from 0 to a 2% yield. He expects cash flow above $4 per year. Book value is $27. He expects it to drop below $20 in tax loss selling season and sees that level as a table-pounding buy.

Show full opinionHide full opinion

This is a trophy stock. It is one of the best run companies. It was $60 in 2014. Their production is 18% liquids and they are bringing on more liquids. They will be a significant beneficiary of LNG Canada for 2023, along with Painted Pony, Birchcliff and Bonavista. They have increased their dividend from 0 to a 2% yield. He expects cash flow above $4 per year. Book value is $27. He expects it to drop below $20 in tax loss selling season and sees that level as a table-pounding buy.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
October 9, 2018

They did not cut the dividend when the stock bottomed in 2016. When this stock trades at a 4% dividend yield, that is the high end of its range. When it trades at 7% yield, that’s the low end of its range. He sees a $40 price as low compared to his $50 1-year target. He has a $70 5-year target. He thinks it might drop below $40 in tax-loss season. Yield 6.5%

Show full opinionHide full opinion

They did not cut the dividend when the stock bottomed in 2016. When this stock trades at a 4% dividend yield, that is the high end of its range. When it trades at 7% yield, that’s the low end of its range. He sees a $40 price as low compared to his $50 1-year target. He has a $70 5-year target. He thinks it might drop below $40 in tax-loss season. Yield 6.5%