DON'T BUY

It's a great summer play and is now weakening. For the past year it's been consolidating. It could find support, but seasonablity works against it--bonds do well until October, then get out. Why? As on October, risk-on trade takes hold. With rising US rates and risk-on trade, he's no confident that TLT will get a big pop. He's not excited about this.

COMMENT

A complicated chart. Uptrend, then parabolic, then corrected, and now trapped in a head-and-shoulder formation, but today may be breaking that neckline. Perhaps there'll be resistance at $90. If it breaks $90, it'll be back on trend which will be a good story. His target is $90, which is not much upside, then see what happens.

TOP PICK

He likes trading sideways stocks, as long as you know the downside potential. He recently bought MFC off the mid-$20's bounce, and he believes it could teach the mid-high-$20's. Not a huge trade, but pays a good dividend. It could reach that peak in the winter. And it's not a high-risk play. (3.7% dividend, Analysts' price target: $30.03)