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(A Top Pick July 11, 2017. Down 7%). This has gone down even as interest rates have come up. He is holding with it, with a very small position. Life insurers are not participating in the financials rally as much as he expected. His model price shows a 47% upside, but the market appears to dislike some aspect of MetLife’s balance sheet and he is not sure what that is. Because he is not sure what is wrong, he would not buy it.
This is a cyclical stock. Over half of its business goes to China. It is at peak earnings. His model price is $196.21, which is a 250% upside, but this stock never trades on its earnings because it is cyclical. He expects the stock to trade over and under his EBB+3 price level which, a year from now, is $82, still much higher than its current price around $60. The stock pays no dividend.
This has negative equity (negative price to book). They blew out all their equity in stock buybacks and other payouts. Passive investing has created a growing trend among S&P-500 companies to ignore their valuation because ETF investors don’t do any analysis. This is evident among defense stocks, consumer discretionary companies, consumer staples, and so on. He does not see companies like this going higher and if the company ever stumbles, there is no book value to fall back on.
This is an interest-sensitive stock. It is currently selling at its model price. The dividend is covered by earnings. He is positive on the stock. The stock has come down a fair bit and is at a good-looking point for buying. If it does go down further, to $31, he would see a warning that the stock is going to go lower. However, there is no sign of that here, yet.
They just announced a dispute with the IRS which affected the stock price today. He expects this to take years to resolve. Canadian software stocks have done very well over time. He would be a buyer on dips, and today’s news created a dip, so he would buy. The model price is $63, which gives a 26% upside from the current price. He would plan to hold this for longer than 5 years. 22. Amazon (AMZN-O)(Doesn’t Own)(Don’t Buy). If the S&P goes higher, certainly Amazon will go higher. It has positive equity, but it is too expensive for a value investor.
The last earnings report was excellent. The stock now yields 1.6%. He owns a lot of this personally. His model price is $32.45, which is a 9% upside. He expects it to go to $32.70. If the market moves higher from here, it will be led by the too-big-to-fail banks. (Analysts’ price target is $34.34)
The stock fell when the CEO left in late June. He wants to buy this stock on the dip. His model price is $79.49 showing a 50% upside. He thinks that old tech has not risen as much as other tech companies, like Micron and nVidia and that leaves opportunity for patient investors. (Analysts’ price target is $58.91)
Amazon just said that it is going to start selling servers. Cisco took a hit on that. His model price is $53.16 which indicates a 25% upside. Cisco is a lot more than servers so there is opportunity for this to be a wake-up call to the Board that does more good than harm. (Analysts’ price target is $48.42)
(A Top Pick July 11, 2017. Up 6%). The too-big-to-fail banks have finally recovered and the market trusts their balance sheets. They have given dividend increases and just passed the stress tests. His model price shows a 6% upside but they need to perform well again before rising further.