Latest Stock Buy or Sell?

This is on his coverage list but not yet on his recommended list. Book value is $3.47 compared to its price today of $2.85. The balance sheet is in good shape, their debts are relatively low ($83 million compared to 1.17 billion of equity, which he calls a “non-debt company”). They’re coming to their lows of the year. He likes the company a lot and he expects it to do much better than it did last year. However, if oil drops below $60, Trican will probably be hit a little more. He expects to add it to his action alert buy list in Q2. This company has traded on 2x book value a few times, during bull markets for oil. He thinks it can more than double over the next two years.

Aramco. He thinks that they didn’t want to make disclosures and conform to accounting standards to the level required by SEC for American exchanges. So they are probably planning on listing just in Saudi Arabia or doing private placements with Russian or Chinese investors. ?

The company has done very well. Balance sheet $180 million against $1.3 billion of debt. Book value is $7.53 so it is trading (at $5.68 on the day of the interview) at a significant discount to book. He expects this company to see $5, though. This company is 90% oil. He expects cash flow this year of about $1 per share. He thinks it will be a good buy when it gets close to $5. This is a good name to own for the cycle. Management is well liked in Calgary.

This year will be a very big year for them. They do business in Morocco, which is a great place to do business this year. They sell energy in Morocco for much higher prices than Canada and the United States. They also had a discovery in Egypt and expect government approval to bring this onstream this year. The company has a clean balance sheet, is sitting on a lot of cash, trades under 2x cash flow. It is very, very cheap. His 12 month target is $2.

Definitely would consider it. $25 target. Cheap valuation. If you own it, average down. Sustainable 6.6% yield. Now is a great entry point.

Calfrac is the high beta choice in this market space. Its problem is its balance sheet. They did well in the 4th quarter but they have a debt at the end of $984 million against a total equity of $477 million. That’s the balance sheet of a utility, not an energy service company. He expects a multi-year bull market in oil after Q2. If that happens, this company will generate a lot of free cash and will be able to pay down its debt. In the last bull market, 2014, this was a $21 stock, so if you are willing to take the gyration of $1 or $2 over the near term you might make a lot over the next few years. However, this requires more risk tolerance than he is willing to accept in his own investing. (Analysts’ price target is 8.65$)

He likes this company. It is on his coverage list but not yet an Action Alert Buy. They have 92% natural gas. He expects it to increase output this year from 42,000 to 60,000 boe per day. They trade at 2x cash flow which he considers very cheap. Book value is $6.71 compared to a price of $2.12 on the day of the interview. Debt is $336 million compared to $1.1 billion of equity. He considers this an acceptable level of debt, but notes that other people on TV have said this level of debt is a problem. On the upside, this company has traded at 2x in the 2014 energy bull market. At today’s book value, the projected bull-market price would be $13 to $14. The stock is very cheap today, but it looked cheap in January 2018, when it was closer to $8. It could go down further before, perhaps to $1.80, it comes back. He has a $7 12-month target.