Latest Stock Buy or Sell? Make More Informed Decisions!

Market. We have seen this movie before. A speculative run-up in the market, and things like Bitcoin are a symptom of a manic approach. There is something at the top of the market that gives you a clue that the top has at last arrived. However, it doesn’t necessarily tell you when the top is, however all the preconditions are in. One of the important preconditions of a top is that there has to be a storyline that the market can’t go down because something is going to stop it from going down, and of course, it is going to be that the feds are coming back in again if there is any weakness. All the preconditions for a bear market are here, except for what is the trigger, and he hasn’t a clue.

A very interesting story because it kind of represents a “push me-pull me” situation. They have spent a lot of time building what they’ve got, and outside hedge funds are seeing about $35 of value, which is not being represented by the stock price. Thinks the company will resist selling assets unnecessarily, except for what they need to support the balance sheet. An interesting speculation and you are just going to have to wait and see.

Based on analysts’ consensus earnings numbers, his calculated FMV is about $115. Also, it is trading right up against one of his critical technical resistance points. It has been moving around that point for the last couple of years, and hasn’t been getting anywhere because earnings are not going anywhere either. This is a company that doesn’t get above its FMV. He doesn’t see where this stock is going to go.

A brilliant concept, although one US analyst has called it a Ponzi scheme. From what he knows, he doesn’t think that is the case. Long-term, if this company delivers on its promise, it could be worth a lot, but you are paying for that future now, and have to be prepared for volatility.

His upside target is at about $76-$77. When he buys banks, he likes to buy the cheapest. If you own this it would be a Hold. However, if buying a bank, this would not necessarily be the one he would choose.

This still has some good upside potential. It wouldn’t be his 1^st choice, but if he were holding it, he would continue to hold it.

(A Top Pick Jan 19/17. Up 32%.) Feels there is still more to come. 2 things will help. He is pretty sure there will be another rate increase, and if tax reform comes, their earnings are going to get a little bounce. The stock is still fairly cheap.

(A Top Pick Jan 19/17. Down 9%.) Had picked this because it was fairly cheap and fairly solid, as well as having a hedge through having a downstream company. This didn’t work out.

(A Top Pick Jan 19/17. Up 9%.) The fact that the values of insurance companies don’t seem to be going anywhere, makes him wonder if he is really interested in this company or not.

The balance sheet is taking a sort of a series of steps downwards. That is probably due to the idiots (company?) buying back their own stocks. Looking at the earnings forecasts and FMV, it has been flat lining since they began buying back stock. Because of this, the stock has actually created extra value. It is very expensive, trading at 30X its BV. The FMV is $82 which gives you a 33% downside risk from here. He would be very cautious about this company.

Crypto currency? The argument for crypto currencies is very interesting, and particularly for Bitcoin, i.e., if you take the total amount of debt outstanding globally, and assuming that a certain number of transactions are going to be settled, Bitcoin ought to be worth some percentage of the total amount of debt outstanding. The number often thrown out by the real bulls is 1%. If that was 1%, then the Bitcoin would be worth $1 million. However, when you ask what the intrinsic value is, you can find it, because there isn’t any. Therefore, the value is anything you want it to be.

The 1^st question you have to ask is, are they earning any money. The answer is NO. It is expected to lose $.04 in the coming 12 months. This is a speculation. He is not interested in this as an investment.

This is probably a good bet going forward. There’s lots of insider buying. Also, they’ve been working very hard to reduce costs. On a Price to Book basis, it is very cheap. When you buy gold, you are fundamentally making a bet that the monetary authorities are going to be stupid, and that is a really safe bet to make, particularly if we get into a Bear market.

This has a couple of problems. Its earnings forecasts have kind of levelled out, and FMV is about $47-$40 and the stock is at about $51. Also, there is quite strong technical resistance at about $53. He would give this a pass for now.

This has basically been threading the needle between 2 of his technical break points, and has been doing it for a long time. The bottom side is at about $40 and the top side is at about $54. It has a nice yield, so he would continue holding it. If it sets back to $40, that would be a Buy.