Latest Expert Opinions

Signal
Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 24, 2017

Starting to look quite cheap. The cash flow profile going forward, from 2019 onward, should look fantastic. Just made a large acquisition, which came with a refinery in British Columbia. That will require a lot of capital in a turnaround early next year. The free cash flow profile doesn’t look particularly good for 2018, but beyond that it should look quite good. Refining margins in BC are at record spreads. They should be making a lot of money at the moment. A decent, steady business. Not a bad name to own. Dividend yield of 4.6%.

Parkland Fuel Corp (PKI-T)
November 24, 2017

Starting to look quite cheap. The cash flow profile going forward, from 2019 onward, should look fantastic. Just made a large acquisition, which came with a refinery in British Columbia. That will require a lot of capital in a turnaround early next year. The free cash flow profile doesn’t look particularly good for 2018, but beyond that it should look quite good. Refining margins in BC are at record spreads. They should be making a lot of money at the moment. A decent, steady business. Not a bad name to own. Dividend yield of 4.6%.

Daniel Lloyd
Portfolio Manager, Forge First Asset Management
Price
$25.250
Owned
No
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 24, 2017

A big provider of group benefits, focused on small and medium-sized businesses. A good free cash flow business. Earnings will never particularly look good on gap accounting, but the cash generation is very real. The niche they have carved out for themselves is quite good. The macro space is very positive. Very capable management.

People Corp. (PEO-X)
November 24, 2017

A big provider of group benefits, focused on small and medium-sized businesses. A good free cash flow business. Earnings will never particularly look good on gap accounting, but the cash generation is very real. The niche they have carved out for themselves is quite good. The macro space is very positive. Very capable management.

Daniel Lloyd
Portfolio Manager, Forge First Asset Management
Price
$7.100
Owned
No
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 24, 2017

Has an ROE slightly below 14%, which is why it would trade at a lower Price to Book multiple of 1.6X. The bank has bought its way into very competitive markets, mainly in the US and things like commercial banking. It would not be the bank he would buy, but doesn’t see any particular risk in owning it. Doesn’t feel you are going to get a lot of performance above the group.

Bank of Montreal (BMO-T)
November 24, 2017

Has an ROE slightly below 14%, which is why it would trade at a lower Price to Book multiple of 1.6X. The bank has bought its way into very competitive markets, mainly in the US and things like commercial banking. It would not be the bank he would buy, but doesn’t see any particular risk in owning it. Doesn’t feel you are going to get a lot of performance above the group.

Daniel Lloyd
Portfolio Manager, Forge First Asset Management
Price
$99.060
Owned
No
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 24, 2017

The stock had gotten a bit too expensive, and is still reasonably expensive at north of 20X earnings, but at the same time it is a very dependable business model, as most people would want to try a mattress before they bought it. A brick and mortar business that should live on. There is nothing not to like about this, other than the valuation.

The stock had gotten a bit too expensive, and is still reasonably expensive at north of 20X earnings, but at the same time it is a very dependable business model, as most people would want to try a mattress before they bought it. A brick and mortar business that should live on. There is nothing not to like about this, other than the valuation.

Daniel Lloyd
Portfolio Manager, Forge First Asset Management
Price
$32.840
Owned
No
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 24, 2017

He likes this and their light oil assets. Trading at a very reasonable cash flow multiple. The balance sheet is good and he likes management. Feels the reserves are under represented, so he sees very positive reserve growth. Has good production per share growth. This is an oil company that actually generates free cash flow.

Spartan Energy Corp (SPE-T)
November 24, 2017

He likes this and their light oil assets. Trading at a very reasonable cash flow multiple. The balance sheet is good and he likes management. Feels the reserves are under represented, so he sees very positive reserve growth. Has good production per share growth. This is an oil company that actually generates free cash flow.

Daniel Lloyd
Portfolio Manager, Forge First Asset Management
Price
$6.840
Owned
Yes
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
November 24, 2017

Operates processing and transmission facilities, largely for natural gas producers. Natural gas liquids and propane are trading at reasonably good prices in Western Canada. He sees this trading at a pretty steep multiple discount to their much larger peers. Really likes management and feels they will be able to execute on their growth plans. Dividend yield of 2.7%. (Analysts’ price target is $2.08.)

Operates processing and transmission facilities, largely for natural gas producers. Natural gas liquids and propane are trading at reasonably good prices in Western Canada. He sees this trading at a pretty steep multiple discount to their much larger peers. Really likes management and feels they will be able to execute on their growth plans. Dividend yield of 2.7%. (Analysts’ price target is $2.08.)

Daniel Lloyd
Portfolio Manager, Forge First Asset Management
Price
$1.490
Owned
Yes
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
November 24, 2017

A Colombia oil play. Generates free cash flow. Has no debt and has cash on the balance sheet. He really likes management and the assets. Expects to see another 20%-25% jump in their reserves. Trading at 5X cash flow. (Analysts’ price target is $22.00.)

A Colombia oil play. Generates free cash flow. Has no debt and has cash on the balance sheet. He really likes management and the assets. Expects to see another 20%-25% jump in their reserves. Trading at 5X cash flow. (Analysts’ price target is $22.00.)

Daniel Lloyd
Portfolio Manager, Forge First Asset Management
Price
$16.770
Owned
Yes