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This has lagged the market and its industrial peers. They have gone through a lot of change, getting out of their financial services in order to grow their industrial segment. Have a new CEO and there will be a new CFO coming in. Earnings target for next year was set by the previous CEO, but that is probably not going to be made and the stock has been coming up. The dividend yield is over 4%. Even high quality industrial companies tend to have a yield of around 2.5%, so the company may reset the dividend.
She wouldn’t be buying this now, even though the stock price has come down dramatically from what it was a few years ago. This has only been public for about 4-5 years, and they’ve been buying assets. There is a lot of pricing pressure on the drugs they bought and paid a lot for. Has a lot of debt on their balance sheet. Debt to Enterprise EBITDA is over 11X. There is a big question as to how they are going to repay the debt when it comes due. Based on what they have now, it doesn’t seem sufficient.
She is buying this for her new clients. The media sector as a whole has had an overhang, in terms of how people are consuming media and how it is going to be priced going forward. What they have going for them is their content and the type of content. ESPN is a big overhang, because people are streaming and not buying the big cable packages. Sports is a type of medium that people generally want to watch live. They announced they’re going to launch a consumer product for ESPN next year. Eventually they see it as a “pick and pay” where you can choose specific shows. They’ve also announced a consumer product for 2019 for their Disney content. For a long-term investment, this is an attractive entry point.
The stock has recovered from when they had the problems with their bribery charges. Have new management now. Earnings have been relatively flat for the last year, so they’ve done some acquisitions this past year, with the larger one being in the UK. The Atkins acquisition makes them much more global. Wait to see how the integration goes with the acquisition.
Fell back on a weak quarter because of a weak slate of movies. The next quarter will also be weak. For new clients, she buys a half a position, and slowly eases into it. There is nothing structurally wrong with the company, so doesn’t think the stock price will drop much further. It always trades at a premium to its US peers because of the large market share they have in Canada, over 80%. They have other revenue streams that are diversifying and growing, such as their rec rooms which have been doing quite well. Bringing E gaming into their theatres, and that sport seems to be gaining momentum. In a few years, those extras will make them less reliant on the movie slate.
This has done very well. Growth through acquisitions. They’ve benefited from a lot of big oil companies getting out of retail. Have also bought assets overseas. They tend to integrate assets quite well. Because they are gas stations, there is a question about traffic weakening or electric cars, and what is going to happen to gas stations. Expects the company will make some moves to address that. The stock has never been priced inexpensively, and the multiple is quite full. If you’ve done well on this, it probably would be prudent to take some money off the table.
This will benefit from hurricane reconstruction, but that is short-term temporary. The reason to own is because of the GDP growth in the US and the increasing household formations. Over two thirds of existing housing is over 30 years old, which is positive for renovators. Also, household turnovers and employment levels are improving. New housing inventory is very low in the US, so more people are choosing to stay in existing homes, and to renovate and upgrade. The one retail sector that has been relatively insulated from Amazon (AMZN-Q). Wait for a pullback.
(A Top Pick Oct 12/16. Down 6%.) Hadn’t done as well as expected. It is a pipeline stock and is interest sensitive. Rising interest rates have worked against all interest sensitive stocks. In the last few months, anything energy related had investors backing away, which hit the pipelines. They also have the Line 3 replacement in their backlog, and still have to get Minnesota’s regulatory approval. In a slowly rising rate environment this is quite attractive, and you are getting paid to wait. She would still be a buyer.
(A Top Pick Oct 12/16. Up 14%.) An electric utility, so it is insulated from commodity exposure. She likes the US acquisition they did, which really expanded their presence in the US. 60% of earnings will be coming from the US. They’ve indicated they can increase their dividend by 6% annually until 2021.
(A Top Pick Oct 12/16. Up 12%.) The world’s largest appliance manufacturer. In developed markets, it is more of a replacement demand and there was a replacement cycle going on. They recently won a ruling on antidumping by 2 of their largest competitors. In emerging markets, the penetration of appliances in households is very low compared to the US, and she is expecting increased demand for appliances.
Inter Pipeline (IPL-T) or Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP.UN-T)? This is primarily all Canadian although they have some assets in Europe. She would encourage Canadians to look outside of Canada, So Brookfield Infrastructure would probably offer more opportunities. She likes them both and they both provide attractive yields.
Inter Pipeline (IPL-T) or Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP.UN-T)? She would encourage Canadians to look outside of Canada, so Brookfield Infrastructure would probably offer more opportunities. Also, there is not as much exposure to crude oil prices as Inter Pipeline would have.
Market. We have synchronized global growth and low interest rates. The MIS increased its outlook for global economic growth. It was 3.2% in 2016, and has been upgraded to 3.6% for this year and 3.8% for 2018. The US and Canadian Central Banks have started to raise rates, and it looks like the UK may be the third. There is little inflationary pressure, so she doesn’t expect interest rate increases will be very rapid and will be well telegraphed. She likes financials generally, because a rising interest rate environment will help their margins, and improving economies will help their business.