Educational Segment. (weekly series) What Investor Personality Are You?: 2. The Preserver / Conservative. They have typically done well in their business or career and have always been conservative. As they get older they get TOO conservative. They tend to have more fixed income. Over the last 30 years they would get 6-7% returns. Over the next 10 years you are looking at a return of 2.5% before fees with higher risk. He does not think you can re-think what kind of investor you are.
Oil a year from now. It will bottom late in the year and then the question is what the weather will be like. If we had a cold winter the price of oil can react quite quickly to the upside, as well as Nat Gas. He thinks tax loss this year will be severe. Then we get $60 oil by Q3 and $80 in 2020 (WTI). You would need a major disruption of supply for oil to go higher. He thinks he will make November buy recommendations.
It has a book value of $17 and is trading at half that. The numbers are compelling but there is a credibility issue with management that has to be rebuilt. He would hold. The balance sheet is in good shape. You could buy when there is tax loss selling between week 2 in November to week 2 in December.
Markets. Everyone is wanting to buy into dips but the markets keeps grinding higher. He does not think the valuations are attractive however. Quantitative tightening could be negative for markets. It is huge to the markets that Trump brings tax reform. Perhaps we will get a ‘sell the news’ impact.