Today, Christine Tan commented about whether BABA-N, GODREJCP-NSE, SBRCY-5, 005930-KRX, INFY-N, TCEHY-OTC, BAP-N, EEM-N, IBN-N, NPSND-5, AAGIY-PK, 051900-KS, ITUB-N, SHG-N, LFC-N, TTM-N are stocks to buy or sell.
She likes the Chinese insurance sector. Penetration levels are very, very low. The bond yield in China is starting to pick up, and that usually helps the lifecos. This is the largest company in China. They have gone through a rough time over the last 12-18 months, so it is trading at a very big discount to its peers. It will benefit from higher interest rates. She prefers Ping An and AIA (AAGIY-PK), as larger and more diversified plays.
A very well-run bank, pure retail. Loan loss ratios are extremely low. Management is very conservative. Also, Korea had not hike rates in many, many years. Recently sold her holdings, primarily because of the change in the global trade picture. There has been a shift towards more inward trade protectionism, and Korea is an extremely open economy, 40%-45% of their GDP is export oriented. Because of that, she has reduced her Korean exposure.
Will Saudi Aramco issue an IPO in the near future? There are a lot of rumours. Saudi Arabia is starting to talk to bankers and potential underwriters. Thinks this will happen in the next 12-18 months. It makes sense, because this is the single largest asset for the government. They spent a lot of their foreign reserves in the last 18 months to defend their currency, so they need to replenish that.
A bank to play foreign markets? Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T) always has the biggest presence in Latin America. A bank that she likes this year, which is extremely, extremely inexpensive, loan growth is starting to recover and has an extremely strong capital ratio, is the Russian bank Sberbank (SBRCY-5). (See Top Picks.)
(A Top Pick Sept 30/16. Down 12%.) In Korea, they are home care and personal care. The growth is really in their cosmetics. In Canada they have the Face Shop stores, where they sell Korean cosmetics. The core business domestically is great and stable, but the growth in China is very strong. Chinese women are just starting to spend on cosmetics and facial care, and they love Korean brands. However, in Q2 South Korea deployed a terminal high altitude defence missile, and because of that the relationships with China has really become quite strained and are discouraging tourism to South Korea. This is still a great company.
(A Top Pick Sept 30/16. Down 8.73%.) One of the large Asian insurers. The main reason it was bit with a bit of selloff since the US election, is that AIA was a really good defensive holding. Post election there was a big rotation from defensive plays to more cyclicals. This is a great, great insurer.
Turkey? An interesting situation. When investing in a country, typically the bottom up fundamental company situation represents 75% of her decision, and the top-down macro is 30%. This country is the one exception where she is not comfortable with the political situation. She is essentially zero weight here, even though there are 34 businesses that she really likes. This country is linked to commodities, so there will probably be a tailwind in the rally they have seen.
She used to own this, but exited because of their loan book, especially corporate loans. Over the last 2-3 quarters, they are starting to get a lot more colour on some of the issues within the loan book. On the last quarter, there were even more issues coming out. If you have done well with the stock, she would consider switching to another name.
An e-commerce pure play in India or this ETF? In India, there isn’t really a publicly listed company. There is a company called Flipkart that is essentially the Amazon of India. It is private and has a lot of notable investors globally. That segment of the commerce is growing very quickly, but it is still not profitable. There is a lot of subsidizing of their delivery costs and it is very competitive on pricing. It’s a little early days, and she would rather go to this indirectly. (See Top Picks.)
A Philippine stock? The biggest challenge with the Philippines is that it is expensive, because it has been a very robust and defensive growth market in the last few years. One stock she would look at would be Ayala Land. Basically a real estate developer with a very big land bank. Management is very disciplined. They have done a fantastic job of monetizing that land bank. That consistency and discipline has resulted in the best return on equity for developments in the sector. Not cheap on a PE basis, trading at around 20X, but with these companies you need to look at it more on the land value.
India investing? This is going to be the fastest growing EM country and the fastest growing major economy globally. They just released their new budget, which she really likes it. Just another confirmation of the strength of their administration. There is a good balance between fiscal constraint, where they continue to shrink the deficit, and spending in very targeted ways. Her preferred space in India would be domestic consumption companies, such as the banks and some of the infrastructure.