Latest Stock Buy or Sell? Make More Informed Decisions!

Markets. The biggest ETF conference in the world is on this week in Florida. 2200 attendees this year breaks a record. The head of OPEC called for a team effort to reduce production. There is a Million to a Million and a half barrels of excess production. If every producer cut back a half percent we would be fine. Last week looked like a short term bottom and will build over the next month or two. This overall market volatility will continue, especially in the second half of the year. S&P earnings with 73 companies reporting are down 3.5%. Earnings are beating on average. There is an increasing lack of earnings growth potential in the world. Don’t look for US markets to make new highs through the first half of this year if not into 2017.

Resource stocks. He has been suggesting that Canada is 3-4% of the world for years and you should not overweight it. He is now looking for trading rallies in this sector and you should only lighten up now when these rallies are on. He expects oil to recover slowly.

VIX – is it safe to hold an ETF for the VIX for more than a few days? The smartest people in this marketplace have trouble trading volatility issues. It is extremely difficult to do. When underlying stocks cut their dividends it gets passed right through to the shareholders.

Hedging non-US$ currency. Some ETFs hedge other currencies. You have to look into what the ETF holds and how they hedge it. Look at the CAD$ /US Pound or Euro hedges and exchange rates. He is fully hedged in these currencies. He expects to take more currency risk on with these later this year when the US$ peaks.

It is probably one of the best companies in the world, investing in future growth and they have a lot of future investment in the company. It should be great for the next decade. Are they moving away from core competencies with the car and glasses? You want to buy these stocks on pullbacks.

He loves this holding. It is very high yielding. You have some of the best and highest yielding companies and the covered call overlay adds to the yield. It is not a bond replacement, but fits into a lot of portfolios. It looks attractive for yield players out there.

Educational Segment. Standard Deviation. In December, securities regulators put out a paper for comment about more disclosure for mutual funds. People don’t understand the true cost of investing. However, the biggest cost to investors is really the emotional costs – the volatility. People sell when they should be buying. Standard deviation defines risk. Looking back over 10 years, higher than 20% on your return means +60 to -40%. The real cost of investing is being able to stay in the market to get that return. ETFs are good for keeping in the stocks for the long term.

Markets. A bear market is 20% and a correction is 10%, according to media. A 100 year study shows a 20% decline occurs about every 3 years, after which markets advance to new highs. You should not try to time it, even in a bear market. The problem is that we don’t know if a 20% decline is over 3 weeks or three years. He decided a market must make a new low within 6 months for it to have been a bear market. The first violation of a close below the lowest low of the last 30 weeks was back in August. Then last week we had violation 2. So he thinks this is where the S&P is going to stop. He says the S&P low is 1867. His analysis of Eliot 5^th wave advances says we will see an advance yet to come in this market during this year.

The trend is up. 2014 showed bullish congestion and then it broke out again. He likes the looks of this. When this stock goes against the market it has outperformed it.

The positive is that during the sell off the volume has increased. The negative is that we had a up leg in spring 2015 and then it ended. It takes a long time to recover from the damage from a spike. We are probably at the bottom, but it will take a long time to build a base.

It is bullish even though the sector is not doing that well. It is driven by geological results. Until Uranium gets over $40 he would not go into it.

You wonder why it has been a favourite when you look at the chart. We are below the financial crisis low. There has been a volume increase during 2015. We have probably had a bottom, but how high is it going to go? There are better places to go. It is for traders only.

S&P. Repeat of the ‘07/’08 pattern. It will probably hold the low of Oct/14. This year is going to be marked by some sectors making highs and some not. The biggest risk is anything to do with consumer. 1820 is the new support, in his opinion.

He would be very careful. It is thinly traded. It is underperforming the market.

(Top Pick Dec 21/15, Down 18.69%) We have a large descending triangle from ’09 and then we are building another descending triangle. We broke out of it in December. It then traded down. It would be impacted by Canadian currency. But he thinks it is okay because we put in a low that is holding up.