Numbers on toys hasn’t been great on a macro level, and there are some headwinds from a weak Black Friday. Q4 is always the biggest quarter of the year in terms of sales, so not a bad time to own it. He plays this through warrants. Goes Long warrants and Shorts the underlying common shares. Feels the warrants are mispriced and there is about 1.5 years left in them so he sees the optionality with the warrants.
CEO is stepping down, but will still be involved in the business. An issue that he has always had with this company is their accounting. Somewhat opaque and they tend to use adjusted EBITDA, which tends to be a bit of a red flag for him. Likes the robustness of their business and the resilience of their customers. A play on international growing trade.
Mainly a bus manufacturer. Likes the consolidation in this business. There are now a smaller number of players in the industry and hopefully it is less competitive. There is an emphasis across North America on improved public transport, however, a lot of governments are feeling a fiscal squeeze so there are some headwinds for them. Longer-term, this is a good company. Yield of 5.6%.
Doesn’t think the outlook for the potash industry is very good over the next couple of quarters. There was a recent announcement with regards to Chinese pricing, which was particularly favourable. Feels the street is overestimating its earnings expectations for the sector. He is Short this and paired it against Mosaic (MOS-N). This has been an interesting trade for him.
(A Top Pick Sept 18/13. Up 21.8%.) A Short. Has been a rough summer for all Canadian retailers. Just cut their dividend by about 75%. Payout ratio was well in excess of 100% for the last couple of years. Cash has gone from about $400 million, down to about $130 million. Just kicked out of the 3 indexes they belonged to. Has been one of his biggest Shorts for the last 4 months and he sees further downside in the tax loss selling season.
(A Top Pick Sept 18/13. Up 5.77%.) Have a monitoring of a heart drug in the US called Cuberton (?) and instead of doing it in a hospital once a month, the patient is able to do it in their home on a weekly basis. Saves Medicare a substantial amount of money. This is their bread and butter business and is adding on various types of business on top of that.
(A Top Pick Sept 18/13.) (Pairs Trade: Long Enercare (ECI-T) and Short Just Energy (JE-T)) Have some lines of credit that are coming up. When a company cuts its distribution, it is never management’s idea, it is always the bankers. Feels that when the lines of credit are rolled over, in January/February, it is a very likely possibility distribution will be cut.
Yield of 14% and generally this is a red flag. Had some production difficulties and were in a “show me” situation. Generally, when a stock is in a penalty box, it will stay there for 3-4 quarters. To overcome this, the company decided to produce 3000 barrels of oil per quarter, which they have done for three quarters. Also, made an acquisition using lines of credit, rather than through dilution. He has conviction in the management team. Feels the yield is sustainable.
Would you consider a long-short strategy with Canadian airlines? How would you do this? Taking a longer-term view of the airlines, it has been a graveyard for investors. Air Canada was up 340% year to date and Transat (TRZ.B-T) was up about 140% and WestJet (WJA-T) was above 40%. An obvious Pairs strategy would be to go Long WestJet and Short Air Canada but WestJet has its own issues by going from one hub in Calgary to having 3 hubs. Doesn’t find this compelling from the long side or from the short side.
Part of the problem is that they own a patent portfolio and it is very hard for anyone externally to judge the quality of it. Recently lost a court case against Apple (AAPL-Q) and had a series of setbacks this year. Have announced a strategic review. Very easy to see a valuation of $5-$6. If you believe that there is going to be a potential sale coming, it would be good to stick around.
Likes this very much. A US listed vertically integrated timber play, primarily in the Southeast US. Has a lot of leverage to the US housing and lumber cycle. J.P. Morgan came out with some very significant reports last Thursday. The most leveraged segment of the lumber cycle is the mills. This is a name to play if you believe in the US housing and lumber story. Completely undervalued.