SELL
The big problem is that there is no evident strategy for the company. Have a new CEO but have not been able to articulate a strategy. It is cheap and there is potential with the Vietnamese and Malaysian blocks which could have some upside surprises. You may be waiting a long time.
DON'T BUY
(Caller's comments; Going back to a corporation. Will be paying a 6% dividend and moving a lot of their operations to the US.) One of the first test cases of conversion from a trust. Drilling in Canada is really a problem right now. When gas prices come down, drilling contractors get laid off. US is a highly competitive market and while they may have better rigs, results of a move there is yet to be seen. A good name, but wouldn't be backing up the truck.
HOLD
Algerian gas play. This is a name that you could start to get a little more excited about. They completed an engineering and design study. They need to secure $750 million and will likely get it. Once they start producing it will probably get some interest by the market. It's a May-June story.
BUY
Has good value in it. Could have a very un-levered balance sheet and isn't trading at an enormous multiple.
DON'T BUY
Very short reserve life index of about 5 years. Also gas weighted.
HOLD
With most trusts, what has been supporting them has been the yield from distributions. Probably have 10% to 15% downside risk when they revert to a corporation. This is one of the older ones and has some prospects in the oil sands, but right now it is sort of stuck in the middle without a clear-cut strategy. Thinks it will do okay.
BUY
An oil sands play and it is starting to get some production going. Wouldn't wade in as it still has some issues but you could participate in a small way.
BUY
A worthwhile hold and would add to it. If you pull up a chart to of the 321 crack spread on refining spread, it was $30 May of last year and today is around $10. Typically margins expand in the 2nd quarter and into the 3rd quarter. Expecting huge margin expansion.
BUY
(Market Call Minute.) Utility regulated and defensive. Runs on a shoestring.
BUY
(Market Call Minute.) Very solid company. Downside stream of the business is as strong as the upside. Not a levered play on anything.
HOLD
(Market Call Minute.) One of the better names generally, but still not in a sweet spot in terms of a royalty trust.
HOLD
(Market Call Minute.) They are betting solely on the downstream and have historically disappointed on the upstream, which seems to be the case going forward.
COMMENT
Oil Shell Extraction: Oil shells are prevalent throughout North America. These are about as tight a formation as you can get. Have now developed a new technique, part of which is horizontal drilling and major fraqing.
DON'T BUY
A lot of the oil stocks deserve higher multiples than the market is giving them. This one is not his favourite. He didn't like their most recent numbers.
HOLD
Has liked it for a long time, but it has been a trial and tribulation. They have great diversification. Have a new CEO. Numbers are good. Thinks it will be a takeover.