TOP PICK
This one has come off very hard. The refining and downstream pieces were disappointing in the 4th quarter. EBITDA was 40%-50% weighted to the downstream but they are coming into a period where refining should do extremely well.
TOP PICK
Great dividend yield of 4.4% and defensive. Cheap on a price to book and earnings per share. Great relationship with the regulator and they are a utility.
TOP PICK
Reasonably valued oil/gas company that has opportunity for upside surprises but doesn't have the implications of the Cdn$ and the cost side going up with the commodity going up. Have prospective developments and opportunities in 4 areas of the world, Brazil, Gulf of Mexico, Ghana and Libya. You have fair value at this price.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 21/07. Up 2% including dividends.)Thought there would be more of a catalyst by selling their oil/gas properties, which they did, but management paid themselves $16 million in bonuses. Now might be an interesting time to look at this.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 21/07. Down 11.8%.) Has been a bit disappointing, but is a North Sea junior oil producer that has gone from prospect of producer to producer. It will eventually take off but for now, a wait and see. Hold.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 21/07. Up 10%.) Considers this as a Hold now. Costs are starting to escalate.
COMMENT
Markets: Should be waiting. Cash is your #1 asset class to hold. The housing crisis in the US has led to a banking crisis and is now leading to a credit crisis. Banks are nervous about one another and don't want to lend to each other or take on any risks. Thinks it will be 6 months to a year before you see it turning around. Wait for analysts’ revisions on the financials to turn. Financials have always led the markets down and always led it up.
BUY
A good name. They knocked against it has been that it had a short reserve life. In the last year, they have proven up a couple of new fields in the North Sea which gives you $50-$60 netback/margin versus $26 in Alberta.
BUY
One of the few royalty trusts that has a very unique strategy. Primarily oil focused and is in the Bakken play in Saskatchewan. Has very little of the risks that you would see with some of the others.
BUY
They replicate the index by buying the constituent elements of the index. The beauty of them is their relatively low costs. A very easy way for both amateurs and professionals to get exposure to the market or use it as a hedge against existing positions.
COMMENT
Not that positive on natural gas. Coming into a shoulder season where gas prices typically fall off. Likes this one, not for the traditional gas play, but because they have non-traditional reserves, have booked tight gas reservoirs, etc., amassed huge land positions, divested of marginal properties, buying back stock, getting into the oil sands and a very forward-looking deal with ConocoPhillips (COP-N).
DON'T BUY
Very gas weighted. Acquiring Cyries Energy (CYS-T). Have taken on a little bit of debt to finance it. Wait until the end of the summer or early fall and buy it in anticipation of a colder winter.
HOLD
An oil sands play and most investors should have some names in the oil sands. This is a 2011/2012 play. He prefers companies that have production or near production such as Suncor (SU-T) or Opti (OPC-T).
BUY
His overall outlook on the market is that it is going to be tough sledding for 6 months to a year so you want to be defensive and in cash and regulated utilities. Extremely well managed.
BUY
A great name. Has a lot of exposure to Cuba so it is hard to see it been taken over. Very inexpensive on a cash flow multiple basis. You can buy this one, hold it, add to your holdings but just be patient.