Stock Opinions by Bill Shaw - Stockchase Experts
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Bill Shaw

On Stockchase since : Feb 2001

Partner & Portfolio Manager at Exponent Investment Management

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Stock Opinions by Bill Shaw - Stockchase Experts

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General Market Comment 

February 24, 2017

Market. The markets are not cheap. Forward earnings on the TSX and the S&P are at 24X plus. As a value manager, he likes to buy stocks a lot cheaper than that. It makes it even more crucial to look at securities you are buying today, making sure, if a value investor, that they are indeed cheap. He still sees some growth, maybe at the 1.5X or 2X level. If Mr. Trump gets his policies put in place pretty quickly, we might see a little more tepid pace than the 3%-4% type level.

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Market. The markets are not cheap. Forward earnings on the TSX and the S&P are at 24X plus. As a value manager, he likes to buy stocks a lot cheaper than that. It makes it even more crucial to look at securities you are buying today, making sure, if a value investor, that they are indeed cheap. He still sees some growth, maybe at the 1.5X or 2X level. If Mr. Trump gets his policies put in place pretty quickly, we might see a little more tepid pace than the 3%-4% type level.

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Bill Shaw

Partner & , Exponent Investment ...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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SELL
Canadian Pacific Rail(CP-T) 

February 24, 2017

This is fairly valued at around $200. Management is pretty strong and it has an OK dividend, but operating efficiencies and ratios have improved significantly over time, and how much more can they get out of it at this point. Fully valued. Dividend yield of 1%.

Transportation
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This is fairly valued at around $200. Management is pretty strong and it has an OK dividend, but operating efficiencies and ratios have improved significantly over time, and how much more can they get out of it at this point. Fully valued. Dividend yield of 1%.

Transportation
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Bill Shaw

Partner & , Exponent Investment ...

Price Price
$194.070
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Royal Bank(RY-T) 

February 24, 2017

Had a great quarter. All the banks are likely to come out with fairly reasonable earnings over the next couple of days. They are going to benefit from a rising interest rate environment. Security prices are a lot higher, so capital markets are doing a lot better. Dividend increases continue and he sees that continuing. (See Top Picks.)

banks
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Had a great quarter. All the banks are likely to come out with fairly reasonable earnings over the next couple of days. They are going to benefit from a rising interest rate environment. Security prices are a lot higher, so capital markets are doing a lot better. Dividend increases continue and he sees that continuing. (See Top Picks.)

banks
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Bill Shaw

Partner & , Exponent Investment ...

Price Price
$96.610
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Canadian National R.R.(CNR-T) 

February 24, 2017

This has had quite a run in the past year. Efficiency ratios are excellent and management is good. Pays a modest dividend. It is fully valued.

Transportation
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This has had quite a run in the past year. Efficiency ratios are excellent and management is good. Pays a modest dividend. It is fully valued.

Transportation
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Bill Shaw

Partner & , Exponent Investment ...

Price Price
$92.360
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Smart REIT(SRU.UN-T) 

February 24, 2017

A very well-managed REIT. Has a portfolio of basically Walmart anchored tenants for its plazas. Has a good development team in place, so he expects they will continue to see growth. Very reasonable dividend at just over 5%. A name that you could buy over the next several years.

investment companies/funds
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A very well-managed REIT. Has a portfolio of basically Walmart anchored tenants for its plazas. Has a good development team in place, so he expects they will continue to see growth. Very reasonable dividend at just over 5%. A name that you could buy over the next several years.

investment companies/funds
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Bill Shaw

Partner & , Exponent Investment ...

Price Price
$33.450
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Northland Power Inc(NPI-T) 

February 24, 2017

A smaller energy producer. Results have been OK. Most of these names have gotten a bit stretched in terms of valuation.

Utilities
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A smaller energy producer. Results have been OK. Most of these names have gotten a bit stretched in terms of valuation.

Utilities
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Bill Shaw

Partner & , Exponent Investment ...

Price Price
$24.430
Owned Owned
Unknown

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HOLD

This has underperformed. They did a stock issue that investors were not too happy with. In terms of communication, this company has not been the best. There have been rumours of potential activists investors coming in, but the company has stated that there is no one really interested. Thinks it is going to be a “show me” story. They have great technical expertise and have been able to increase production in the past.

oil/gas
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This has underperformed. They did a stock issue that investors were not too happy with. In terms of communication, this company has not been the best. There have been rumours of potential activists investors coming in, but the company has stated that there is no one really interested. Thinks it is going to be a “show me” story. They have great technical expertise and have been able to increase production in the past.

oil/gas
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Bill Shaw

Partner & , Exponent Investment ...

Price Price
$14.990
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT

Well-managed. Its properties are pretty decent. Retail REITs are not performing as well, so he prefers more diversified REITs. The yield is north of 8%.

property mngmnt/investment
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Well-managed. Its properties are pretty decent. Retail REITs are not performing as well, so he prefers more diversified REITs. The yield is north of 8%.

property mngmnt/investment
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Bill Shaw

Partner & , Exponent Investment ...

Price Price
$12.860
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT

A very well-run Canadian retailer. He likes what they have been doing. It always seems very expensive. He would like to see a bit of a pullback, which he doesn’t expect to see for a while. Earnings have come in above expectations, and store sales seem to be relatively okay.

specialty stores
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A very well-run Canadian retailer. He likes what they have been doing. It always seems very expensive. He would like to see a bit of a pullback, which he doesn’t expect to see for a while. Earnings have come in above expectations, and store sales seem to be relatively okay.

specialty stores
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Bill Shaw

Partner & , Exponent Investment ...

Price Price
$155.040
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Enbridge(ENB-T) 

February 24, 2017

He really likes this. The Spectra acquisition will close, and as always, they are going to have to integrate it and get the synergies out of it. Very well-managed. So far everything is working favourably for them. Recently increased the dividend, and he expects to continue to see modest increases over the next several years. He can see this easily getting up to the $60 level. This is a growth story.

oil/gas pipelines
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He really likes this. The Spectra acquisition will close, and as always, they are going to have to integrate it and get the synergies out of it. Very well-managed. So far everything is working favourably for them. Recently increased the dividend, and he expects to continue to see modest increases over the next several years. He can see this easily getting up to the $60 level. This is a growth story.

oil/gas pipelines
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Bill Shaw

Partner & , Exponent Investment ...

Price Price
$54.200
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT

This is a great investment. It has a reasonable dividend yield of about 6%. Well-managed. Basically office properties. It has exposure in Calgary, but the good news is that oil prices seem to be on the rebound. The bad news is that we are starting to see more development for office space coming up, so there may be a little bit of pressure. Thinks this is going to be a steady Eddie performer on a go forward basis.

property mngmnt/investment
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This is a great investment. It has a reasonable dividend yield of about 6%. Well-managed. Basically office properties. It has exposure in Calgary, but the good news is that oil prices seem to be on the rebound. The bad news is that we are starting to see more development for office space coming up, so there may be a little bit of pressure. Thinks this is going to be a steady Eddie performer on a go forward basis.

property mngmnt/investment
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Bill Shaw

Partner & , Exponent Investment ...

Price Price
$23.220
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY

He likes this. His focus is on dividend and growth, so the dividend yield is fine. It has been growing fairly nicely. Dividend yield of 6.2%.

Utilities
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He likes this. His focus is on dividend and growth, so the dividend yield is fine. It has been growing fairly nicely. Dividend yield of 6.2%.

Utilities
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Bill Shaw

Partner & , Exponent Investment ...

Price Price
$39.500
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT

Brookfield has generally done a good job with most of its companies, but this one has fallen off the radar a bit. It has a decent yield. There will be some projects fed into it from Brookfield over time, but he feels there are better opportunities elsewhere.

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Brookfield has generally done a good job with most of its companies, but this one has fallen off the radar a bit. It has a decent yield. There will be some projects fed into it from Brookfield over time, but he feels there are better opportunities elsewhere.

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Bill Shaw

Partner & , Exponent Investment ...

Price Price
$6.700
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Plaza Retail REIT(PLZ.UN-T) 

February 24, 2017

He doesn’t see this being a take-out candidate at these prices. Their properties are average, maybe on the smaller size. It has performed reasonably well. Yield of 5.2%.

REAL ESTATE
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He doesn’t see this being a take-out candidate at these prices. Their properties are average, maybe on the smaller size. It has performed reasonably well. Yield of 5.2%.

REAL ESTATE
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Bill Shaw

Partner & , Exponent Investment ...

Price Price
$5.150
Owned Owned
Unknown

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General Market Comment 

February 24, 2017

The effect of interest rates on REITs? Some people look at REITs as bond proxies, so they are going to be sensitive to interest rates. The key thing is to look at each REIT individually. You need to look at the duration of their mortgages that underlie the REIT and their financing. Most of them have gone long at 7-10 years, which means they have locked in current rates. The biggest concern is if we have a sharp move up where there might be some competition from bonds. If a longer-term investor, and you think rates are going to stay relatively flat for the next 2-3 years, the REIT sector is going to be a steady Eddie, and you are probably looking at dividend returns of 5%-6% and capital returns of another 4%-5%, so you are probably looking at 10%-12% compounded.

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The effect of interest rates on REITs? Some people look at REITs as bond proxies, so they are going to be sensitive to interest rates. The key thing is to look at each REIT individually. You need to look at the duration of their mortgages that underlie the REIT and their financing. Most of them have gone long at 7-10 years, which means they have locked in current rates. The biggest concern is if we have a sharp move up where there might be some competition from bonds. If a longer-term investor, and you think rates are going to stay relatively flat for the next 2-3 years, the REIT sector is going to be a steady Eddie, and you are probably looking at dividend returns of 5%-6% and capital returns of another 4%-5%, so you are probably looking at 10%-12% compounded.

Unknown
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Bill Shaw

Partner & , Exponent Investment ...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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