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Investor Insights

This summary was created by AI, based on 5 opinions in the last 12 months.

Ulta Salon Cosmetics and Fragrance Inc. has beaten earnings and revenue estimates, but conservative guidance has worried investors. The company's outlook for operating-margin deterioration and slower sales growth in 2024 is a cause for concern. However, Ulta Beauty remains well-positioned in the beauty industry and benefits from strong demand, limited discounts, and a growing customer base. The stock price at $438 is seen as a good buy, but not for trading purposes. Overall, the company's performance is considered good but with some caution.

Consensus
Caution
Valuation
Fair Value
Similar
Sephora, SEPH-Q
DON'T BUY

It reports Thursday. But he keeps hearing Sephora is eating into their business, and that ULTA is not doing so well.

Consumer Products
DON'T BUY
Downgraded today

Revenues are up 22% over 3 year, but only 6% in the past year. Shares are down 24% in the past 12 months. It's a maturing stock.

Consumer Products
PARTIAL BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

EPS of $8.08 beat estimates of $7.57. Revenue of $3.55B beat estimates by 6.7%. EBITDA of $579M beat by 5.6%. Conservative guidance worried investors, though. Ulta Beauty's outlook for more operating-margin deterioration in fiscal 2024 is a bit of a concern, given the metric fell more than 100 bps to 15% in 2023 and since big market-cap hardline peers are largely projecting improvement this year. Beauty demand remains robust, as evidenced by strong 4Q results, including a 14.6% operating margin -- up vs. 3Q and above management's guidance. This strength in demand should let discounts remain limited, a tailwind for margin. The company's forecast for $11.7-$11.8 billion in sales for 2024 appears low, implying less than 5% growth at the midpoint, or about half of 2023's almost 10% gain. This might be too drastic a slowdown, even with tough year-over-year comparisons, considering its growing customer base and expanding store fleet. We are comfortable still, but it needs to be watched a bit more closely than usual. 
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Consumer Products
BUY

They're positioned well in beauty and benefits from the Instagram Effect. It reports next week.

Consumer Products
COMMENT
Piper Sandler Teen Survey results

#2 in cosmetics, behind ELF Beauty.

Consumer Products
BUY

They had a great quarter and he loves the CEO. At $438, shares are in no-man's land. Sells at 17x earnings. A good buy, but not a trading stock.

Consumer Products
DON'T BUY

It's the 6th-worst performer in discretionary. A good company, but momentum is broken and hasn't seen a bounce.

Consumer Products
BUY

They just reported an excellent quarter last night, but spiked after hours, plunged, then rebounded today. A yo-yo. Why? How? Up and down then flat. They had a massive earnings and sales beats. Same-store sales were up 15.6% vs. 8.7% expected. And they faced tough comps from last year. RPS and revenue forecast FY 2023 guidance topped expectations. They're opening 25-30 new stores, while Wall Street expected 49. Problem is that expectations were set high, and today saw the SVB crash and a bearish market. Impressive growth areas: skin care, fragrance and ecommerce/in-store pick-up. Rewards program boasts 40.2 million members. American luxury spending will remain healthy, but will moderate. Not perfect, but pretty good.

Consumer Products
PARTIAL SELL
Caller started buying this in February 2021

Take some profits before they report on Thursday.

Consumer Products
BUY
Loves it. Up 11% this year. Reported 15% same-store sales growth and a had earnings beat. The CEO doesn't see a slowdown yet, but rather a boost in cosmetics sales because people are going out again. Every category grew by double-digits in the last quarter. Trades cheaply at 19x earnings
Consumer Products
BUY
Last week they reported a giant earnings beat and nearly 15% same-store sales growth. They were up against really tough comps. Management also raised their forecast, but the market didn't care and sold down shares by 5% after that report. However, shares ran up during that quarter, and management warned of a competitive holiday season.
Consumer Products
BUY
They report Thursday. They're shooting the lights out. He expects a big beat. Great managers.
Consumer Products
BUY
They report this week. We're in a mask-off world, so that's great for skincare products. Ulta will shine.
Consumer Products
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Down a lot today. The CEO is doing a great job, so today is a buying opportunity.
Consumer Products
PARTIAL BUY
A great CEO. A retailer you must own, but buy at $350 then $300 in tranches.
Consumer Products
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Ulta Salon Cosmetics and Fragrance Inc.(ULTA-Q) Rating

Ranking : 4 out of 5

Bullish - Buy Signals / Votes : 3

Neutral - Hold Signals / Votes : 0

Bearish - Sell Signals / Votes : 3

Total Signals / Votes : 6

Stockchase rating for Ulta Salon Cosmetics and Fragrance Inc. is calculated according to the stock experts' signals. A high score means experts mostly recommend to buy the stock while a low score means experts mostly recommend to sell the stock.

Ulta Salon Cosmetics and Fragrance Inc.(ULTA-Q) Frequently Asked Questions

What is Ulta Salon Cosmetics and Fragrance Inc. stock symbol?

Ulta Salon Cosmetics and Fragrance Inc. is a American stock, trading under the symbol ULTA-Q on the NASDAQ (ULTA). It is usually referred to as NASDAQ:ULTA or ULTA-Q

Is Ulta Salon Cosmetics and Fragrance Inc. a buy or a sell?

In the last year, 6 stock analysts published opinions about ULTA-Q. 3 analysts recommended to BUY the stock. 3 analysts recommended to SELL the stock. The latest stock analyst recommendation is . Read the latest stock experts' ratings for Ulta Salon Cosmetics and Fragrance Inc..

Is Ulta Salon Cosmetics and Fragrance Inc. a good investment or a top pick?

Ulta Salon Cosmetics and Fragrance Inc. was recommended as a Top Pick by on . Read the latest stock experts ratings for Ulta Salon Cosmetics and Fragrance Inc..

Why is Ulta Salon Cosmetics and Fragrance Inc. stock dropping?

Earnings reports or recent company news can cause the stock price to drop. Read stock experts’ recommendations for help on deciding if you should buy, sell or hold the stock.

Is Ulta Salon Cosmetics and Fragrance Inc. worth watching?

6 stock analysts on Stockchase covered Ulta Salon Cosmetics and Fragrance Inc. In the last year. It is a trending stock that is worth watching.

What is Ulta Salon Cosmetics and Fragrance Inc. stock price?

On 2024-06-21, Ulta Salon Cosmetics and Fragrance Inc. (ULTA-Q) stock closed at a price of $383.84.