Ensign Resource Service Group

It has a decent balance sheet but some operations are in difficult places. It is a high beta stock and will do well when the cycle turns. The company has some assets that are going to under-perform for some time to come. There are more attractive names.

This stock compares to Trinidad Drilling (TDG-T) and both are on his coverage list. He likes what he sees out of Ensign. It has $740 million debt versus $1.7 billion of equity. Their book value is $10.77 and the stock trades at $6. They have a very big presence in the United States. Of $1 billion in 2017 revenue, $459 billion came from the US, $262 from Canada and the rest international. They’re in the Middle East and in Mexico and Venezuela. Venezuela adds some risk to the stock. He is hoping to add coverage on weakness.

He likes the company. Book value is $10.77, he thinks the downside is $5. It traded around $14 to $15 in the last bull market for energy, so he sees the potential for a triple, but it is a stock that requires patience. There is potential for a 10 to 15% downside in the Q2 weakness.

(A Top Pick Jan 6 /17, Down 29.59%) When you buy cyclical, you need to be prepared when it goes the wrong way. This is still a world class company. They have done a lot of innovation through the years, return on capital has been very consistent for many years, and of course the last few years haven’t been great. The services companies are really tough, they are the first ones to get cut, and then when things starts to get better they are the last ones to go up. Energy didn’t quite have as good a year as they thought and services got left behind.

The 2^nd largest driller in Canada with significant international drilling operations as well. This is a derivative play on the energy sector. Unlike some of the other service companies, it has not performed that well from a stock perspective.

(A Top Pick Jan 6/17. Down 15%.) Services are more cyclical, and in general will lag the producers. Also, they had a “not so great” quarter, which took the stock down. Overall, he still really likes this. It has been a really great company, and if you get the opportunity to buy it at a cheap price, he would stick with it.

The 5-year chart shows this had been going down, and is now stabilizing. The rally that started in 2016 is very gentle, and doesn’t have as much credibility as the big rally selloff in 2014-2015, so he would avoid this.

He considers this a medium risk company. He finds any of the service companies riskier, and have lagged, versus the producers. When you are in the services game, you are the last in line when things are good, and 1^st in line when things get bad. They are just starting to get an upswing after the energy prices improved. This is at its all-time low in terms of return on invested capital, but they have a tremendous track record. It is also undervalued. Dividend yield of 5.03%. (Analysts’ price target is $9.81.)

Energy service companies have come off more so than the oil companies. Their budgets are driven by the oil companies, and also their cost structures seem to be fixed, so when the wind comes out of their sails, they still have the same cost structures. This is now at a pretty good level. You might look to pick away at these companies in the next month or so. This one is a good name and is one of the bigger ones.

He prefers something like Vermilion which doesn’t have to cut its dividend. These fracing companies should be able to come out of this situation really beaten up and still really do well, as long as they get through it. The timing is starting to feel right.

An energy service company, and he is concerned at this point for all energy service companies, and would avoid most of them. The activity you are seeing right now in Canada is quite weak. At one point there were only 11 active rigs in Q1, the lowest level that has ever been seen since they were being measured. Activity in Q2 looks like it is going to be weak as well.