Brinker International (EAT-N)

Shares have fallen from its peak in late June by 14%. Now is a good entry point even as peers step up their value offerings in the fast food space.

Have reported several beats, including an earnings beat in late January and raised full-year sales and earnings forecasts. Trades at only 13x PE. Lots of room to run.

Reported Q1: revenues were inline but delivered a monster EPS beat of $0.28 vs. $0.06. Also, they raised their full-year forecast. Caused by adding more menu items and returning to national advertising after a hiatus.

Today, they reported a huge earnings beat as well as revenues and 9.1% same-store sales increase. Shares jumped 4%, but then during the conference call management mentioned higher costs and shares retreated a bit.

(Market Call Minute.)

(Top Pick Jun 25/15, Down 18.16%) It was off in the last 6 months. Oil exposure hurt them because 17% of their restaurants (e.g. Chilli’s) are in Texas. They made a significant change to their loyalty program that hurt foot traffic. They are addressing it. 10% free cash flow yield, 8% share buyback and 2% dividends. He still likes it.

1500 restaurants, Chili’s for example. There is pent up demand because good traffic has not caught up to 2007. You get a 2% dividend and 5-7% of stock bought back each year.

(A Top Pick March 26/13. Up 38.5%.) They own 2 restaurant brands along with a whole bunch of restaurants, 1500 restaurants in total. All but 44 are under the Chillies’ brand.

(A Top Pick March 26/13. Up 12.49%.) Have roughly 1500 restaurants and all but 44 are under the Chili’s brand. This is primarily a capital return to shareholders story. Management intends to buy back $1 billion worth of stock between now and the end of 2017. 2.3% dividend yield.

US restaurant company with over 1500 stores with the vast majority being Chili’s. Balance sheet problems in 2008 have been fixed and they are now investment grade. Same-store sales was very weak coming out of the financial crisis but have turned positive in the last 6 quarters. A $2.5 billion company and they just gave guidance that they are going to buy back $1 billion of stock and going to pay $300 million in dividends. You’ll get half your money back between now and 2017 and you’ll own more of the business than you do today. Dividend yield of 2.19%.

Main restaurant is Chili's in the US. Have done some good things in turning things around and getting margins up. In the restaurant business you are better to find newer concepts with potential future store growth. Restaurants are going to be pressured over the next few years by rising food and commodity costs. Trades at a steep multiple of 15-16 times earnings.