A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Several decades since we've seen this. Gold has played a major role in shifts in reserve currencies. Investors are looking more closely at gold, and at gold equities, as an investment alternative.

Gold has doubled over the last 3 years. Up 47-48% YTD. Things really kicked off when Russia invaded Ukraine, and sovereign countries realized that no assets are safe. So it's been a steady move, with significant velocity picking up in 2025. There's been increased geopolitical uncertainty this year with Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as around the Federal Reserve and Trump trying to assert his influence.

There's also diminishing comfort around the US dollar, retail demand for ETFs, and insatiable Chinese retail demand. Gold bullion and gold ETFs have become easier to own in China.

Velocity and momentum in gold should continue.

Investing 101: Willingness to Accept Risk vs. Ability to Accept Risk

Willingness to accept risk

An investor's willingness to accept risk relates to whether they are a risk-seeking individual or not. This piece caters more to the psychological side of things such as how much volatility they can withstand and what kind of returns they expect. It also looks at what an investor wants to get out of their portfolio.

Ability to accept risk

This piece focuses more on the facts of one's financial situation and less on the qualitative side. This looks at items like age, knowledge/experience, portfolio size, employment status and salary. Someone who is more able to accept risk is someone who is young, gainfully employed, understands investing and has a large portfolio to begin with.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free  

The focus has shifted from tariffs to rate cuts. The Canadian and US central banks have delivered cuts that kicked off a new cycle. Initial reaction was mixed, but that's not unusual as investors recalibrate the path and pace of future cuts. We could see a bigger pullback from all-time highs, but not a break from this uptrend, led by the tech giants, consumer discretionary and utilities. On the TSX, materials and financials continue to lead. Bank stocks are climbing (she's bullish). Industrials lag, waiting for a clear outlook.

There's a lot of focus on interest rates. In his business, he finds that it's more about the stability of rates than about the direction. The past 6 months have seen greater stability in interest rates, which lets transaction activity pick up. That should lead to price discovery in the sector, and makes him bullish on some key themes.

REITs have come off. If you look at a chart of real estate stocks in the S&P 500, valuations are at their lowest levels relative to the rest of the S&P. This group has really been unloved, with the big chase in tech. 

As a result, you have great businesses, a great store of value, with growth that's being completely overlooked. Public real estate is trading at a very wide discount to the NAV of the private market. Should be a lot of opportunity heading into 2026. It's a typical environment where you can imagine M&A activity picking up. Great time to look at the space.

Dividends in the sector are growing because the property fundamentals are so strong. It's a very bullish sign. Great sign to see cashflow increasing and, with it, the ability to pass it on to unitholders. 

Online markets are betting on the odds of a US government shutdown. Around noon today there was a 75% chance and now 79%. The longest shutdown was a couple of weeks and makes no impact on the long-term US economy or stock market.  At most, the market corrects 3%, then snaps back. So, a correction happening now would be caused by something now. You will see fear in the options market where people take bets strategically, mostly putting on hedges. 

September is the weakest month, but markets are up. When this happens, usually you don't get the seasonal rebound. Markets are richly valued and there could be a correction. Be ready: have your favourite picks ready to go. He loves long-term cybersecurity, AI and uranium, whether companies or ETFs at your time horizon (i.e. 2 years). Warren Buffett would say buy an S&P ETF.

He likes collar strategies to manage market volatility. Find a high dividend stock or ETF and periodically put a cashless collar on it to buy protection to pay for it. It the market corrects, your collar is profitable and benefits capital gains. However, watch the emotion side of executing these in volatile markets. Not for investors who don't watch markets every day.

Oil prices have been low. Trump has said, "Drill, baby, drill," but the rig count is falling, because the producer don;'t pump when prices are low or falling. Oil has chopped from low-60s to mid-70s. Trump now wants to keep oil prices down to tame inflation. We're rangebound so buy weakness. Strategic reserves in the US has started to be replenished, but still a huge ways to previous levels; is rising slowly to avoid depressing prices and triggering inflation ahead of the US Midterm Elections. Forecast prices for the next decade are flat. The E&P companies are worth investing in during dips. Look at ZWBN, EMAX and ENCC, options covered call energy ETFs if we remain rangebound.

Investing 101: The Rule of 72 (and 144)

Compounding allows money to grow at an exponential rate, which is often a concept that we as humans have difficulty grasping. For example, $100 growing at 10% gets to $1,700 at the end of a 30-year period, but naturally, our brains couldn’t calculate this exponential amount. A good method to get around this is through the ‘Rule of 72’. The Rule of 72 states that the number of years it takes for invested money to double is 72 divided by the interest rate. For example, money growing at 10% annually will require 7 years to double (72 / 10 = ~7 years). The Rule of 72 can also be expanded to 144 – this would provide us with the time it takes to quadruple invested capital. For example, it would take 14.4 years to quadruple invested money growing at 10% annually (144 / 10 = 14.4 years). 
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free  

He harkens back to "irrational exuberance" of the internet bubble from Alan Greenspan in 1996. The bubble didn't pop until 4 years later.

Look back to how Fed chairs have fared when they talk about some sort of overvaluation in markets. Turns out that markets are higher 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-months later. So their observations are not good timing indicators. Not to say that this time couldn't be different.

Look back to 2000 and the darling that was CSCO, trading at 120x forward PE. Compare that to today's darling NVDA, which has grown a lot and could be called expensive. Yet it's trading at ~35x forward PE, a pretty significant difference.

Looking at the chart from a technical perspective, how extended are we above the 200-day MA? Because that gives you a sense of how bubblicious or extreme the recent market move has been. At its peak in 2000, the NASDAQ was 54% above its 200-day MA. The NASDAQ today is 14% above. 

So during the dot-com era, the darling stock was 4x more expensive and the market was 4x further away from its 200-day MA.

AI and the AI adoption curve have been followed by earnings. So today it's an earnings story, and the growth is actually there. Investors might miss out by sitting on the sidelines.