Opinions
Lorne Steinberg
Xerox
XRX-N
COMMENT
Jan 30, 2018
$32.680
Stock price when the opinion was issued
misc industrial products
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TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly XRX has been a laggard during the pandemic as office workers have been remotely working. As employees begin a return to the office environment demand for the company's products will begin to return. Meanwhile the stock is quietly building a solid foundation. Carl Icahn has been accumulating shares steadily through August and purchased another $3 million worth of the stock so far in September. In its latest earnings the company produced $0.15 EPS, when analysts expected a breakeven, even in the face of a 35% drop in revenues. An area of future growth is in their liquid metal 3D printing solution -- allowing companies to manufacture much needed parts with off the shelf alloys. On a measured move basis, we see upside to $25 -- almost 30% upside. It is trading at 74% of book value, with a low historic PE, and offers an attractive yield that is backed by a 28% payout ratio. We would trade this with a $15 stop loss. Yield 5.20% (Analysts’ price target is $18.25)
misc industrial products
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 17/20, Up 17.8%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with XRX is progressing well. We are recommending trailing up the stop to $21 (currently at $15). This will all but guarantee a minimum return exceeding 7%, based on our initial recommended entry.
misc industrial products
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 17/20, Up 12.7%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with XRX has triggered our stop at $$21. We recommend covering the remaining position at this point. Combined with the recommendation to cover 50% back in December, this has achieved an overall return of 12.7%.
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TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly XRX is the US leader in print management services, holding over 20% of the market share. Along with that success, the company has been accelerating its digital presence and automation processes, 3D printing and cleantech. Recently reported EPS of $0.47 easily beat analyst calls for $0.37. Revenues were up 22% and margins expanded, creating a jump of $198 million in free cash flow. One can only expect these to expand further as schools and businesses return post-pandemic. It trades at 17x earnings compared to peers at 40x and is trading under book value. It pays an excellent dividend, backed by a payout ratio that is under 75% of cash flow (under 45% based next year earnings expectations). We would buy this with a stop loss at $18.50, looking to achieve $30 -- upside potential over 22%. Yield 4.17% (Analysts’ price target is $53.75)
misc industrial products
TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly We reiterate XRX as a TOP PICK. The US leader in print management services, holds over 20% of the market share. Along with that success, the company has been accelerating its digital presence and automation processes, 3D printing and cleantech. It trades at 15x earnings - half the value of its peers and it is presently trading below book value. It pays a solid dividend, backed by a payout ratio under 75% of cash flow. We would buy this with a stop loss at $18.50, looking to achieve $30 -- upside potential over 42%. Yield 4.85% (Analysts’ price target is $53.50)
misc industrial products
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 13/21, Down 9.3%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with XRX has triggered its stop at $18.50. We recommend covering the position at this time. Combined with our previous buy recommendation, this will result in a net investment loss of 17%. We will look for better opportunties.
misc industrial products
DON'T BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research
XRX has really struggled, with the stock down 43% this year. It is very cheap at 6X earnings, but is likely a value trap. Debt is very high, at about 6X cash flow. Sales are in decline, and are about half the level they were a decade ago. It is still profitable, however. EPS is half the level of 2016. The dividend payout ratio is only about 30%. The dividend was cut in 2017. Its small size and debt adds a lot of risk here. Market cap is only $1.3B, down from near $20B decades ago. It is expected to grow in the 2% to 3% range over the next couple of years. We would not consider the dividend to be safe, though with rates decline its debt burden becomes a bit less onerous. Still, not our type of stock and we would not suggest it.
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misc industrial products
How do you analyse value when there is so much debt? He doesn’t like buying companies with too much debt. With this company, and a number of other companies like it, you have to separate the debt. There are 2 kinds of debt in this. A large chunk of it is related to financing customers who are buying their products. Like many, many companies, a large part of the debt is profitable debt where they make a spread when selling equipment. He calls this the financing debt, which is a profitable debt for them. Xerox is an investment company and their real debt is not actually that great, which is why it has an investment grade balance sheet. This is why you have to dig behind the numbers and look at the notes in the financial statements. He likes this stock. They are back to growth mode again, earnings have started to grow and free cash flow is growing. Companies have found they need document management, and even on the printing side the move to colour printing means they are making a ton of money on expensive ink cartridges.