Opinions
Jamie Murray 
Winpak Ltd.
WPK-T
HOLD
Oct 02, 2018
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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WPK is a North American producer of packaging materials based out of Winnipeg. It is presently trading at under 2x book value on 15x earnings. We like that cash reserves are growing while debt is being retired. Analysts expect a 24% increase in earnings this year. We recommend a stop-loss at $35, looking to achieve $55 -- upside potential of 30%. Yield 0.3%
(Analysts’ price target is $54.97)We reiterate WPK, a North American producer of packaging materials based out of Winnipeg, as a TOP PICK. Recently reported earnings grew 24% on a 18% increase in revenues. It is presently trading at under 2x book value on 16x earnings. We like that cash reserves are growing while debt is being retired. We recommend trailing up the stop (from $35) to $39, looking to achieve $53 -- upside potential of 24%. Yield 0.2%
(Analysts’ price target is $53.19)Also on April 25, this packaging company from Winnipeg reported a strong quarter. Q1 2023 EPS of $0.60 rose 16% from $0.52 a year earlier and marked the company's highest quarterly earnings in history, despite higher operating expenses shaved EPS by two pennies. Revenues of $304.5 million jumped 10.3% higher from a year ago, while volume grew by 8.7%. Note that Q1 2022 suffered from an aluminum foil shortage. Gross margins slightly shrunk to 28.8% compared to 29.5% a year ago.
We reiterate this manufacturer of food, beverage and healthcare product packaging as a TOP PICK. Recently reported EPS was up 16%, representing the highest Q1 earnings achievement in company history. It trades at 16x earnings and 1.7x book. We recommend maintaining the stop at $39, looking to achieve $53 -- upside potential over 21%. Yield 0.2%
(Analysts’ price target is $53.82)WPK is a bit of a 'sleeper'. It has $450M net cash, and is 53% owned by its parent. The stock is cheap. Looking at consensus estimates, EPS growth is really expected to slow down, and is essentially going to be flat next year. Expectations are for sales +5% and EPS to go from $2.33 to $2.34. Assuming nothing else happens, it looks like the 'ramp up' is likely over.
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Our PAST TOP PICK with WPK has triggered its stop at $39. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment loss of 9%, when combined with the previous recommendations.
A good growth story over the past decade, growing without issuing new equity. The packaging space has been challenged the past two years though. He wouldn't enter this space now, but it's okay to hold WPK for the long-term. Pays a 0.26% dividend only.