Rob Sechan, Managing Partner, New Edge Capital Vistra VST-N BUY Dec 23, 2024

Vistra was up 31% in May. It's one of the unregulated power producers in a country hungry for power, thanks to all the data centres being built for AI. Buy on weakness.

A momentum stock can't withstand the kind of recent drop it's had. He prefers Constellation Energy.

Is up 80% in the past month, the best S&P performer and hitting a new high today. Healthy profits and unique assets with secular growth from nuclear energy demand, which needs to fuel AI production. But Vistra is no longer cheap at 24x forward PE, so he expects it to consolidate.

Profitable and never expensive. A top pick in nuclear power. Also likes Constellation Energy.

Shares have rallied 200%. Take some profits.

Of its energy sources, 60% is natural gas and 20% coal, but they have nuclear exposure and are making investments in renewables.

VST tanked over 28% today on news of China's DeepSeek stealing the AI crown from ChatGPT--DeepSeek is faster and cheaper. All AI-related stocks, including energy plummeted as the Nasdaq slid over 3%. It's a confusing situation that happened so suddenly that you have to sit on your hands and wait.

Is awaiting clarity about DeepSeek's actual costs and the entire AI complex. Rallied on the data centre trade, until DeepSeek hit.

Pullback is excellent entry. Second-derivative trade on AI revolution. Leading independent power producer in US, ~5M customers across 20 states. Half its business is in Texas, which is ground zero for power-hungry data centres. Yield is 0.7%.

Likely to sign an agreement with a hyperscaler. Power prices increasing. Can foresee upgrade to credit rating, which lowers cost of capital. Trades at a fairly undemanding 10-10.5x enterprise value to EBITDA.