Stockchase Opinions

John Manley USG Corp. USG-N TOP PICK Dec 04, 2006

Manufactures wallboard for the construction industry. Got knocked back pretty hard with the downdraft of the housing market. What’s interesting is that it has been basing since July and Warren Buffet has been accumulating and owns about 20%. Broke out on fairly big volume in the last 2 days.
$56.970

Stock price when the opinion was issued

contractors
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Short Put Dec 4/06.) Collected his Put premium and the Puts expired worthless. Didn't own the stock so he was ahead by the premium. Still likes it from a Short Put perspective.
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Largest manufacturer of wallboard. Warren Buffett is the largest owner at 17%. Thinks the stock has come down too far. It will have short-term trouble as the number of new homes built goes down. Long-term population is going to increase and this is what drives home construction. Could be volatile in the next 6 to 9 months.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 20/08. Up 4.8%.)
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Top Short One of North America’s largest dry wall, gypsum board and ceiling tile manufacturer. 80%-85% of revenues come from the US. Given what is going on in the new home build and the housing market in the US, it continues to remain weak. Just lost over $4 in 2010 and this quarter looks to be another negative quarter. Trading at 56X forward 2013 earnings.
HOLD

Great beneficiary of the improving housing market in the US. Stock has had a nice run but to the extent that he sees a continuation of this housing recovery, general wallboard gypsum price will continue to stay strong. Company has significant earnings power.