Don Vialoux U.S. Gasoline Fund ETF UGA-N PAST TOP PICK Feb 12, 2014

The big thing with seasonality is that you buy before the seasonal impact takes place. Technically, the chart looks very good but on seasonality, he is expecting there will be some weakness. The one thing not factored in, will people be making adjustments on their driving habits this year. Would start getting out of this position now.

US gasoline. Longer-term prospects are good. In the near term you might get some backing and filling. It's a decent position to be in.

From the end of January to the end of April the trades worked for 9 out of the last 10 periods. Average returns 22.6%. Refiners are changing over from making heating oil to gasoline. Also doing inventory. That’s the period gasoline inventories start to come down. (Hasn’t bought yet. Waiting for the market to start correcting.)

U.S. Gasoline Fund ETF. The period of seasonal strength is from the middle of February until the end of May. (Summer driving season.) Average gains for the last 10 periods have been 24.8%. This is a good year in particular because there has been a shutdown of major capacity for US gasoline production. There has just been a peaking of gasoline inventory levels in the last few days. (Expecting Ontario gasoline to reach $1.47 by the end of the May.)

(Top Pick Mar 2/12, Down 6.46%) Normally gasoline does well from end of January until Memorial day weekend. It started off really well until the first week in April, then started to under perform. Seasonality ended a little earlier than usual.

(A Top Pick March 2/12. Up 1.91%.) (Note: His Picks are never on a 52-week basis but on a short-term seasonal basis. However all 3 of his picks failed as seasonal trades. He liquidated all 3 around the beginning of April when the technicals started to turn negative.

(A Top Pick March 2/12. Up 13.85%.) This is a great one for a retail investor but for the size of fund that he runs, it is too small. This seasonal trade has been very consistent over the years.

Tracks the price of gasoline and consists of a futures contract plus a short-term note. He is looking for the price of gasoline in southern Ontario to go from around $1.32 up to $1.54 by early this summer. Some US refiners have shut down permanently as well as other refiners that are not coming up as expected this time of year.

Gasoline futures ETF? Generally speaking, about half the demand for oi (excluding aviation and road transport) is consumer driven. He would not be buying into this presently. He would prefer to look for good quality individual companies rather than broad baskets like these.