Opinions
Peter Mann
Time Warner Inc
TWX-N
BUY
Jan 05, 2015
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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(Top Pick Nov 4/15, Up 12.16%) It is still under loved. This is a content company with HBO, CNN, People, and Warner studios. It is a content and delivery company. It is exiting and they have the ability to grow. They are the least affected by cord cutting. It is an attractive entry point.
Believes today’s price makes this a Buy. It had a bit of a failed deal with 21st-Century Fox a couple of years ago, where they offered in the mid-$80. AT&T has now come in and offered $107.50, half in stock and half in cash. The stock is trading at a fairly good discount to that because of the deal risk. There is concern that the deal might not be approved, but many are thinking that under a Republican administration there is a good chance it might be approved. He thinks it will make $6.25-$6.50 a share in earnings. It has significant free cash flow. This is probably the least affected of all the media companies to cord cutting. They have HBO over the top, so they can now stream it to about 15 million US households without a cable connection.
(A Top Pick May 11/16. Up 36%.) He’s been selling because he has gotten such a good return and is afraid the deal might not go through. If it doesn’t go through, the stock is going to go back down. If you are a US investor, you want to wait for a year because then it turns long-term and you pay a lower tax rate.
(A Top Pick May 11/16. Up 36%.) Possibly being acquired by AT&T. The takeover price is a little over $100 a share and the stock is $98-$99, so there is a little bit of upside. The stock was about $76 before the takeover rumours, which is a lot of downside if the takeover falls through. He doesn’t like that ratio. There is a chance the takeover will not go through, so he would suggest you sell your holdings.
Sell or wait for the merger with AT&T? This has to wait for more regulatory hurdles. It is obviously having a home run with Wonder Woman and have some more DC movies coming out this year, so earnings are doing quite well. This Disney (DIS-N) have been the best performing “on results” media companies. Expects there will be more consolidation. If you own, he would take profits and buy Disney (DIS-N). He wouldn’t want to own AT&T. (See Top Picks.)
Sold this in 2017 at $99 on the proposed acquisition by AT&T. He did very well with it, but there was a bit of a deal risk on the table that came to fruition. However, the Justice Department didn't like the deal and were going to sue AT&T and block the deal. It was in court, and the stock fell into the low $90s, and he repurchased it. He would have been happy if the Justice Department had lost. The company will make about $6.75 in this fiscal year. Even if they lose, he is happy owning it. The stock will react negatively but it will recover. Dividend yield of 1.7%. (Analysts' price target is $103.61.)
There was a bid to purchase it from FOX and it did not go through. They have HBO and it would be a great fit with FOX. It is not cheap. But it is one of the core assets if you are going to own media stocks.