Stockchase Opinions

Paul Gardner, CFA Timbercreek Financial TF-T TOP PICK Mar 31, 2015

(A Top Pick Feb 11/14. Down 7.12%.) This is a mortgage investment Corp. Has been hurt because they had prepayment issues last year. Has heard that insiders have been aggressive buyers of the stock. A good asset class to own. Yield of 9.33%.

$7.940

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Financial Services
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TOP PICK

$300 million market cap. A very stable mezzanine financed building. They lend money for short-term real estate loans and are tight lending the money. If there is no loan to be done, there is no yield. If they do a loan, they just flow the income back to you. A very consistent business. Putting this into a TFS account is a wonderful vehicle. Yield of about 9%.

HOLD

There was a real disconnect between two entities within the company they decided to merge and that allowed them to trade closer to NAV. They increased their distribution recently. He still likes it.

SHORT

He's very negative about the housing sector. He's short TMC. Credit spreads are rising and the credit markets are turning over. Canadian real estate is vulnerable.

TOP PICK
Bond-like, they're very good at mezzanine and commercial lending. They distribute what they get and are conservatively balanced (balance sheet). They know their markets. It's like a mortgage-lending situation. They earn 7% rates of return, no more or less. A very stable investment, acting like a bond proxy. (Analysts’ price target is $9.96)
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Looking for asymmetric returns. A core position for him. Asset value is very stable and you are making a floating rate of return on top of the asset value. Slightly expensive to NAV right now. Hard to find something else with the same yield however.
BUY
What they lend to is incredibly stable. Good operators. Perfect vehicle for TFSAs or registered accounts. Trades slightly above NAV. Yield of about 7%.
PARTIAL BUY

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. A decent company and the stock price is decently cheap. The dividend has not been changed since being lowered in 2016. Shares have not passed 2011 levels. An income investment. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

TRADE

Pool of money that trades on the TSX and is lent out short-term to the real estate industry. They charge a premium on that. Like owning just the mortgage department of a bank. Payout of over 8% is fully taxable income, not a dividend. Avoid the tax by putting it in your RRSP. Risk/reward is good. One loan didn't go well, with the result that the company is left with a building to sell. Because of this, combined with market nerves about small things, trades at a discount to NAV of $8.40. He'll trade around the NAV. Stock doesn't grow, it just distributes income. 

TOP PICK

Unique business plan.
Pool of money that collects dependable income.
Worst case - can collect underlying real estate. 
High yield being paid on shares.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 08/23, Up 14%)

Last year was hard on this company with interest rates having moved way up so quickly. It is in the short term mortgage market business. Property prices are coming down. It still pays a 9% dividend and is trading at a 10% discount to its hard cash value. It is in their income portfolio.