Stockchase Opinions

Eric Nuttall STEP Energy Services STEP-T PAST TOP PICK Dec 14, 2018

(A Top Pick Jan 05/18, Down 82%) He sold out of this when it became apparent oil prices were not going to finish above $70 per barrel by year end. A pure pressure-pumper play. With a lack of interest in the service sector, he got out above $10. He does not like their pricing structure and does not support management's aggressive pricing strategy.
$2.080

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Energy
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BUY ON WEAKNESS

He thinks it is pretty cheap right now. The company made an acquisition in Oklahoma giving them more fracing assets, which he likes. Investors are a little concerned about infrastructure capacity constraints in the Permian. He has a 12 month target price of $15 and is looking for an entry in this soon.

DON'T BUY

This coil tubing and pressure pumping company with assets in the US has exposure in the Permian, which is temporarily slowing as infrastructure becomes constrained. In Canada, the market remains even weaker for service companies and there are rumours one of the big players is offering service rates at a 30% discount. The challenge for STEP-T it that their margins may be under pressure. He would not own this name right now.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick January 5/18 Down 63%) Ownership is very thin in this company and this has hurt the valuation dramatically and has gone no bid at times – falling 5% in value a day. They were very predatory in trying to win business and he has since lost faith in their strategy. He will no longer own this going forward.

DON'T BUY
He would avoid this. They were overly aggressive in giving pricing concessions to two major customers. There are several overhangs. He would avoid pressure pumpers in general and more specifically avoid this name.
WATCH
There is a battle for market share in Alberta. They are trying to keep their crews busy. There will be a shortage of manpower in the second quarter. They are in a fight with TCW-T. They are both 50-70% down. STEP has 50% debt and it is justified by the equipment. He is looking at it as a name he would look at going forward. Tax loss selling lasts into December.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 09/18, Down 80%) He sold at over $10. They did a horrifically timed US acquisition. He also didn't like the predatory cutting of rates to steal two Trican customers. He will never invest in them again.
DON'T BUY
He is extremely active in trading in his fund. He may recommend a stock today, but get out of it next month because of situations. They put out a horrible Q4. Their entry in the US was horrific timing. He is not comfortable with this name anymore.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
70% fracking and then they have coil tubing. They are pretty cheap. They are doing reasonably well. It is really, really cheap. The two biggest shareholders are funds so liquidity is an issue Buy on weakness; he would have a target of $5.
HOLD
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research.

STEP is down 35% this year, but up 59% in 52-weeks. 
Profit taking is probably part of the issue here. It did beat estimates in the 4Q, but the sector has been quite weak, and the company has recently seen two downgrades by brokers. 
EPS is supposed to show very little growth in 2023 before recovering somewhat in 2024. 
The drop does seem a bit much based on recent results and considering the very low valuation.