Plug Power IncPLUGBUY ON WEAKNESSOct 09, 2020Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.
PLUG is moving as a new potential AI play, as well as by short covering (31% short interest). Interest in hydrogen and fuelcells has increased as investors fret about the need for power to run AI data centres. It has never made money and cash flow is massively negative. It is a bit of a MEME/FOMO stock right now, and we can't endorse it on its fundamentals.
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PLUG stock has been quite weak, but it is still in fundamental growth mode. Sales are expected to go from ~$700M in 2022 to more than $1.9B in 2024, based on estimates. It is, however, still losing money, with negative cash flow, and in a weaker market tape investors get more concerned about this. The balance sheet is decent, with about $400M net cash, but we note cash flow was negative $1B in the last 12 months. It will likely need more capital, and it may be more interesting when it decides to issue equity (we are assuming a discounted price if this happens). Its loss last quarter was higher than expected, and it had previously expected to be profitable this year, but this now looks to be pushed into 2025. So, we like the growth trend, but are a little concerned about its capital needs. We think buyers can wait here.
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Hydrogen fuel cells are the next important energy source in the next 10-20 years, he predicts. Hydrogen could take market share from solar energy and even replace natural gas buildings across America. Hydrogen is clean energy when combined with oxygen and water. Hydrogen could power vehicles and store energy from wind and solar; storage is a problem with renewables, depending on good weather. The technology is not there yet: currently, 9 parts of fossil fuels produce 1 part of hydrogen, so it's inefficient. However, the price of producing "green hydrogen" with renewable energy is coming down. Hydrogen is bulky which is another problem. As the price of solar panels sinks, then the price of hydrogen looks viable. The pure play in hydrogen is Plug. They've been making fuel cells for over 20 years of ups and downs, but now on the right track. They're developing a more efficient forklift and making a hydrogen fuel system to replace old-school acid batteries in industrial trucks. But PLUG has had a huge move in the past year, so buy on a pullback. Their core business is to provide hydrogen fuel cells to forklifts of which they occupy 10% of the market, so there's room to grow. Their technology has already been adopted by Walmart, Home Depot and Amazon. They just signed a pilot program with Linde to test fuel cell engines, and are talking to a big European car maker. It's risky, though, so wait for a cheaper price.