Eric NuttallNinepoint Energy FundNNRG-NEOBUYAug 16, 2024

Lots of respect for Eric Nuttall. This is a call on oil and, to some extent, natural gas. If the conflict were to end tomorrow, we have to distinguish what the financial markets will do from what the physical markets will do. There's a big difference.

There are a lot of financial players in the futures market, and they trade paper for barrels they don't even own. And then they go short. It has nothing to do with the actual physical demand for oil/gas. So a lot of players out there are probably counting on additional blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, and making a financial bet that the price will go up. If they're wrong, they'll likely have to offset those bets. That could take the price of the financial contracts much lower than the actual physical demand. You won't see that on your screen, because we typically track the financial market, not the physical exchange point-to-point of the commodity.

Right now, we're generally entering a period of seasonal weakness for commodities. That's in a typical year. This year is nothing close.

If there's a resolution to the Iran conflict, we could see a massive correction on fears that there will be a glut. That will have nothing to do with valuations on great companies with great reserves in the ground, and more to do with a gut reaction that the play is over.

If you're a very long-term investor (say, out to 2030), stick with it. Energy will probably be a great place to be. However, he can't guarantee there won't be a violent 30-40% correction in the interim. Know what you own and what kind of investor you are.

Is actively manged, holding oil and gas services stocks. Offers growth and income, but has underperformed, but as the market rally broadens, this should improve.