Opinions
David Fingold
Japan Tobacco Inc.
JAPAF-5
DON'T BUY
Aug 20, 2018
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Tobacco. This has been a very strong value creator, even in Cd$. Tobacco is transitioning away from being a carcinogenic cancer product. 15% of the Japanese smoking population now use vapour. There is a new CEO who is looking to do an acquisition. A great story and is quite interesting. (See Top Picks.)
This is another dividend stock. Given the outlook on interest rates and the central bank quantitative tightening around the world, he is not excited about dividend plays. In addition, tobacco is a challenged industry. He thinks Japan Tobacco will have to make an acquisition, probably Imperial Tobacco, so there is a lot of uncertainty here. (Analysts’ price target is 4000¥, the stock trades at 2800¥)
He owns zero tobacco, because volumes are declining worldwide. Also, e-cigarettes are replacing Thirdly, they are overexposed to emerging markets where currencies have fallen the most.