Stockchase Opinions

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA Horizons Equal Weight Canada Banks Index ETF HEWB-T DON'T BUY May 09, 2022

Good moment to buy Canadian banks? In positive scenario, can expect S&P at 4700 at the end of the year which would be good for Canadian banks. In recession scenario, S&P at 3600. Question is will there be a recession? It is likely and markets haven't priced that in fully.
$30.010

Stock price when the opinion was issued

E.T.F.'s
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BUY
Which Canadian financials ETF to buy? Do you want income or equal weight? Defer capital gains? FIE-T pays a monthly income and include preferred shares, corporate bonds and banks stocks, so it's diversified. If you don't want this income and prefer exposure and a total return swap and defer the taxation, then he suggests HWEB-T. You don't get dividends, so it's a great way to defer capital gains. But do you want to pay an MER to hold the big 6 Canadian banks?
TOP PICK
The Canadian banks have performed poorly most of this year, but have since a sharp uptick this month. Seasonality begins Oct. 10.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 24/19, Up 2%) The banks peaked after that, relative to the market. The end of August was a bottom. They started to break out in October. Earnings in late November needs to be good for the stock to not take a hit, from a seasonal perspective. Watching US financials.
TOP PICK

Disclosure: He works for Horizons. This is an equal-weight bank ETF. Banks are entering seasonality. Market softness could benefit the banks, and definitely when rates tick down. The market will likely trade sideways then rise gradually, but this will benefit the banks.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 31/23, Up 17%)

Bank stocks had bottomed in Oct 23' which made for a good buy. Relief in interest rates good for bank stocks. Strong earnings also good for stock performance. Recent share pullback good time to buy. 

COMMENT

Is corporate class, so you don't get the dividends, but instead are compounded back into the unit value.

WEAK BUY
No distributions, so does a sale trigger a capital gain or loss instead of dividend income?

Any sale triggers either a capital loss or gain. It depends on the election you made with CRA on your exact tax treatment. Capital gains are the most efficient tax treatment. 
 
Benefit of CRA and dividends only comes from Canadian companies. So, even if you have an ETF that pays a distribution that comes from European or American companies, that dividend is treated as income even though it comes through a Canadian ETF.

He very much likes the Global X series of corporate class ETFs. They give you broad exposure to markets but don't have those distributions, so they're a bit more tax-efficient. Now, there are some additional costs in there to create those structures. As well, it really depends on your tax rate whether they're a really big benefit to an individual. More benefit to those in higher tax brackets than in lower ones.