Stockchase Opinions

The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research) Green Brick Partners GRBK-Q PAST TOP PICK Mar 18, 2025

(A Top Pick Jan 02/25, Down 6.8%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O’Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with GRBK is stagnating.  To remain disciplined, we recommend trailing up the stop (from $43) to $50 at this time.  

$57.970

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Developers (Real Estate)
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DON'T BUY
In the housing sector, many stocks had a gigantic December, but not GRBK. GRBK is behind their peers.
HOLD
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research.

GRBK is a mid cap home builder and land development company. It is growing nicely and priced well at 10X earnings. 
It has economic/rate sensitivity but has been very profitable for the past decade. The balance sheet is OK. 
Insiders own 7% and the stock has been doing very well. 
Positives: growth, management, consistency, valuation. 
Cons: recession risk, interest rate risk, cash flow variablility. 
It looks good to us and is growing faster than a group of six Bloomberg peers. 
We cannot provide personal weightings, but as a mid cap stock with economic sensitivity we would be cautious on a big position.  
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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Recently reported earnings for GRBK, a builder of new homes in the US southern states, showed all time record high quarterly home closings and EPS -- both increasing 25% over the year.  It trades at 8x earnings, under 2x book and supports a 25% ROE.  The company is prudently using cash reserves to retire debt and buy back shares.  We recommend setting a stop-loss at $43, looking to achieve $74 -- upside potential of 19%.  Yield 0% 

(Analysts’ price target is $74.00)