Opinions
Josef Schachter
Guide Exploration
GO-T
TOP PICK
May 10, 2011
Doing 13,500-14,000 BOE's a day and expected to average 14,000 a day. Got into the doghouse when involved with the Pasqua and Cardium. Had to sell assets. Doing 37%-38% oil and liquids which is over 50% of revenues. Fabulous value story with BV of $7.97. Has an NAV of $5.48 at the end of 2010. Expecting $1.50 annualized cash flow at the end of 2011.Very cheap.
$3.640
Stock price when the opinion was issued
oil
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BUY
Likes this one. Has a $5.50 target. Sees an NAV of $5.48. Expecting them to do 14,400 BOE’s a day this year. About 34% of oil and liquids, which will be cash flowing them $122 million. Debt about $136 million. Just over 1:1 debt to cash flow ratio. Could see volumes growing up to 15,000 BOE’s a day by year-end.
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DON'T BUY
Have not had a good time of things. Let leverage get too high and had to sell key assets that use to be their jewels. Reserve bookings have been in question. Have retrenched and focusing on probable reserves and turning them into proved reserves. Have lost a lot of their luster and the attention of the street.
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COMMENT
Sitting on a huge land spread. Just had a new management change. Has been struggling to grow production for several years. Will take a little while for the management team to chew through the properties and divest themselves of non-core assets. On a long-term holding you could do okay but he prefers others.
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