Shane Obata Enphase Energy ENPH-Q TOP PICK Mar 15, 2023

Has long liked this. It turned out to be a financing play rather than a solar play. Shares should have bounced by now, and it hasn't--and he owns this miscall

Is down 55% this year. Sells to mostly homeowners, so is exposed to higher interest rates. Reported last July with soft guidance with a small sales shortfall. Suffers excess inventory that could worsen. It is profitable. The PE has fallen from 60x forward to 24x forward. Are expanding in Europe, which could offset the weaker US market. He's torn over this and has made the wrong call on this this year. It's a show-me stock.

The sector is certainly under siege right now. Enphase's inverter shipments fell sequentially in 3Q to around 1.6 gigawatts vs. 2.1 GW in 2Q, though the declines could begin to subside in 2024 as inventories normalize. Sales dropped about 13% in 3Q, toward the lower end of revised guidance, and will likely be flat in 2023 given macroeconomic conditions in the US and Europe. Tax benefits included in the Inflation Reduction Act have supported margin expansion. Adjusted gross margin topped 48% in 3Q and could stay above 45% through year-end. Though the company only shipped 86 megawatt-hours worth of batteries in the quarter, a ramp-up in 2024 is possible as Enphase looks to expand production in the US and sell in new territories. ENPH is down to 17X earnings, but with a decline of 70% this year tax-loss selling is very likely. It has a decent balance sheet, but we would not step into this one on the buy side yet. 
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Still no. And tax-loss selling will also impact this name. Are better names out there.

Down 59% this year with the sector, because of high interest rates. With rates easing, shares climbed today.

The worst S&P stock of 2023, killed by rising interest rates and collapsed energy price, down 66%. Before that, ENPH was a winner. You need to borrow to buy their solar panels, hence the interest rates.

An interest rate play. Stay away.

Whole clean tech space has been very difficult. The story unraveled with inflation and higher rates. Still a good company, solar inverters. Better job than closest peer, and that's due to management. Drop-off in US and Europe. Sticking with it.

Is hitting a bottom today, down 50% for the year. He thinks that Trump likes solar, but the markets doesn't think that matters. Avoid any stock that receives subsidies.

It's a company that means nothing to Trump. Nothing.