Stockchase Opinions

Gordon Reid Dana Holding DAN-N PAST TOP PICK May 08, 2013

(Top Pick May 9/12, Up 30.36%)

$17.490

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Consumer Products
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COMMENT

This is a 2nd derivative play off the auto recovery. US auto industry is moving back to a normalized rate of production. Also, the average car in the US continues to get older and older and is currently around 11 years old.

TOP PICK

Auto parts. The auto industry is continuing to recover and thinks they will do well into the future. Have a broad cut-out of very good customers. Coming out with products that, from a technology standpoint, are better. They are lighter, which has implications from a fuel economy standpoint. Trading at a nice multiple and it has growth opportunity.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Aug 20/14. Down 29.81%.) In the car parts business, and one of the very big effects is the China play. China represents something like a 3rd of the total car market. He still likes the company very much. Trading at about 8X earnings. They have bought back a lot of their stock. Backlog is growing quite dramatically, but they have a couple of headwinds. One is China and the other is South America, but this will turn over and change.

TOP PICK
A tier 1 OEM auto supplier. Very involved in electrification. Suffered from lack of demand, as well as from inflation and supply chain issues. Starting to come out of that. Margins starting to rise. Free cashflow yield in mid-teens. Yield is 2.33%. (Analysts’ price target is $16.33)
DON'T BUY

At this point in the cycle, you can't buy an auto parts maker, even a good company.

BUY

They were lost in the wilderness a few years thanks to supply chain woes and recession fears, this has shot up 37% since end-May. They just reported a solid quarter: beater revenue, huge earnings beat and raised their full-year forecast. Shares hardly budged because they had run up so much before the report.

TOP PICK

They will do well in EVs where the margins are much higher than in gas cars.

(Analysts’ price target is $17.44)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 08/22, Down 22%)

Auto parts company that supplies after market sector. Highway and road supplier will be good when infrastructure spending kicks in. Strikes not good for business. Auto sector not trading well, but will stick with the company. Believes better times ahead for the company. Has potential within the next year to ~3%. Earnings power around $2-3/share. Once auto business recovers, will also be good for business. 

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 17/23, Down 15%)

They're in a tough space. Still holds it. It's a timing issue. The end market has been weak given the EV buzz. There's talk of them being bought out. They may sell their highway division.