Opinions
Stockchase Insights
Carvana
CVNA-N
DON'T BUY
Jun 05, 2023
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Moving up in a step pattern -- rallies, consolidates at the higher level, rallies, consolidates. A fantastic accumulation pattern, extremely well supported. Now consolidating. As long as it holds above $100 support, it's still being accumulated.
The 5-year chart is very interesting. Massive selloff, huge multi-year base, and now it's broken out. Looking at where it was, looks like it's just getting started longer term.
Simply put, carvana is a better way to buy a car. you can browse, finance, and purchase a car online and have it delivered to you as soon as the next day. cutting out the dealerships translates to thousands of dollars in lower costs on every vehicle we sell. we pass these savings on to consumers in four ways: lower prices (our customers save $1,681 on average vs. kelley blue book), premium cars, a better experience, and no hidden fees. Social media mentions are up 1150% in the past 24h.
CVNA has recovered quite well this year, after a substantial drawdown of around 90% from its peak in 2021 and it is now trading at 0.2x times' Price/Sales (as the company has negative EBITDA, earnings and even book value). Growth was more than 100% in COVID years but went substantially to even negative growth in recent quarters. The balance sheet is highly leveraged with $8.2B of net debt while still burning cash. Overall, the company was growing really fast in the COVID years, with the promise to become the leader of used cars. However, the company is still unprofitable, burning cash quite significantly, highly leveraged, and may need to raise additional capital in tough times. We consider the share price highly volatile, and we would prefer to wait until profitability has been achieved. The company came precariously close recently to going under, and the short position remains more than 50%. Too risky for us.
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