Stock price when the opinion was issued
At some point, CELH is going to become a very very attractive buy. But right now it is a falling knife, having dropped from near $100 to today's $25, in a relentless rollover. It has cash and earnings growth, but we would not yet consider it 'value' since it is still at a 37X earnings valuation. The product is good, we think, but Pepsi's de-stocking has been brutal to the company, and revenue fell 31% in the Q3. We need this to at least level out to get some confidence back.
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EPS of 14c beat estimates of 11c; revenue of $332M beat estimates of $325M. EBITDA of $62.9M crushed estimates of $42M. Revenue did fall 4.4%. International revenue was very strong, up 39%. Margins rose 2.4 points. It was a good quarter, and few were expecting much. The acquisition of Alani Nu makes sense. It is a big purchase, but it consolidates market share, adds more exposure to the women's market, and will be accretive in its first year. A mix of stock and cash, it should add to long term growth and strengthen CELH's overall position within the sector. The big move today will scare some of the short sellers (26%). We think the bottom has likely been seen now here with the stock and it will likely work its way up higher over time. We would be less inclinded to chase this in today's frenzy, however.
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Is up 76% this year after a choppy 2024. Troubles began last year when owner Pepsico ordered fewer energy drinks from them. CELH shares had risen on the Pepsi partnership prior to that. Since the February bottom, shares have been up 120%. In Feb. they delivered excellent numbers and acquired Alani Nu, which boasted +15% adjusted EBITDA margin and $605 million in net sales in 2024. CELH expects strong synergies between the two brands. CELH Q1 gross margin was +52.3% and +41% in international sales. Shares are pricey at 57x PE, but is historically 89x. Comps are improving and the acquisition is good.