Stockchase Opinions

Don Lato Borg Warner BWA-N PAST TOP PICK Oct 30, 2019

(A Top Pick Dec 21/18, Up 17%) A company in the automotive industry. Tariffs and a slowing sector were headwinds, but they have gained market share. Earnings have grown modestly, but it trades at only 9 times earnings and offers a dividend yield just under 2%.
$39.265

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Automotive
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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 22/16. Up 15.23%.) Thinks the markets are just trying to figure this one out. A lot of the auto parts got hurt on speculation that there was a peak auto, so he just took advantage of that.

TOP PICK

Auto parts manufacturer. This has lagged in the last couple of years, but has started to pick up recently. They are in the propulsion end of things. With thoughts of electric and hybrid cars, analysts and investors took a pass on them for the last little while. They are still participating in those areas, and in fact their parts are growing in that market. Trading at about 11.5X this year’s earnings and 10.5X next year’s, still well below its historic multiple up 14.5X. They will participate, whether it be hybrid or electric or regular combustion engines. Dividend yield of 1.4%. (Analysts’ price target is $41.12.)

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 24/17, Up 29%) It had come out of a disappointing quarter so the stock had sold off a bit. They are in the Auto business in Propulsion. There were concerns about being left behind as combustion engines were phased out. But hybrids are the fastest growing sector of this company. He thinks it is still quite cheap here. 12 times earnings.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 24’16, Up 41%) They hit on all cylinders. A third of their business comes from non-combustible engines. An investor day in November announced 7% growth in revenues for years to come. There is potentially a strong probability of a bump in the multiple.

TOP PICK

Has come down with all the auto stocks. BWA has outperformed the industry by a lot in the last quarter. Sales growth of 3% vs. -3%. They're making good advances in hybrids and e-cars. Pays 8x 2019 earnings and has a growing market share while the auto market will recover. (1.7% yield, $49.91 price target)

TOP PICK
A very innovative company. They announced a new component for electric cars that will allow hybrids to go to only one engine. The contract begins 2022. Trades at only 9 times earnings. They have disposed of an asbestos related company that cost them $180 million. Yield 1.75% (Analysts’ price target is $45.27)
DON'T BUY
Auto parts was interesting to invest in during the last recession. He used to own BWA when its business was growing. He exited the space in late-2013, because manufacturing rates for cars peaked again. The long-term problem with this sector is that it is married to the internal combustion engine while there are more and more e-cars in the world. So, the engine becomes smaller and less important; the battery becomes important. Not good for BWA. He won't look at this industry until the next recession. Semis are the best way to get exposed to cars, actually.
BUY
They got left behind in the car boom last year and now, because they didn't have enough EV exposure, just 3% of their sales. They're changing that, as announced last Tuesday, and will grow their EV business to 25% of sales by 2025, then to 45% by 2030. The stock has run up since the year started, but has pulled back in recent days. Forget 2025--the company delivered a great quarter last month. BWA sells at only 11x PE. This is the stock to buy in a fast-growing economy.
WAIT
Their next move won't happen until the semi shortage ends in Q1 2022. That's when you pull the trigger.