Stockchase Opinions

Srikanth Iyer A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert A Commentary COMMENT Jul 09, 2012

Markets. World has become one over the last 10 years. Doesn't matter where the stock is from anymore, you just want to buy best of breed global companies. As markets became one, it was harder and harder for money managers to add value because of volatility in the market. Today, people are more comfortable buying condos Toronto than buying a good solid dividend paying global company. Fear in the market and apathy to equity investing has become so large that good fundamental approaches to investing, such as growth, payout and sustainability have been categorically abandoned. Canadians have done a pretty good job of buying the banks, income trusts and a lot of dividend paying stocks. Outside of Canada there are big problems. Canadian style should be exported globally.
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COMMENT
Message to investors.

There's always something a bit unique, as no two situations are exactly the same. The last time we went through a shocker was during Covid in March 2020, and the market fell over 30%. The message he sent to clients then was whenever you look back at times like these, you always say that you should've bought great companies when they were on sale. That's eternally the message.

Warren Buffett says buy when there's blood in the streets. If you buy great quality (and this is the moment to buy great quality because it's cheap again), you'll be well served when you look back at your portfolio 5 years from now.

COMMENT
How to navigate the falling knife?

An "all or none" approach is probably the wrong thing to do, as it just leads to paralysis. If someone had, say, $50k to invest, just be disciplined and put in $10k (or whatever's comfortable) a month and start buying today. If you wait until calm returns and things improve, you'll have missed the first 25% move.

COMMENT
Control what you can.

Buy the world's best companies. Anything from Canadian bank stocks to any of the great technology companies. They've all been hammered, and this is your opportunity. Dividend yields are higher because you're paying less for these stocks. Great management teams will figure out how to navigate these situations.

COMMENT
Reducing equity exposure now is a big mistake.

It's always a mistake to sell when the world is panicking. Don't forget Warren Buffett's advice to buy when people are panicked and sell when everything looks rosy. These quality companies were great 10 years ago, and they'll be great 10 years from now. If you can buy them on sale, why wouldn't you? Investors should be loving these times.

COMMENT
Energy sector.

You have to buy the sector when it looks awful and prices are low. He has minimal exposure, owning just one stock in the space. When things are weak, you really appreciate having a low-cost producer.

COMMENT
Real estate.

Shortage of housing in Canada. But in Toronto, for example, so many condos are coming on that prices are softening and even rents are softening. The only REIT he owns is CAR.UN.

Office buildings are going through an evolution, and we don't know how it's going to end. Not cheap enough to make a bet on the office space. Malls are certainly going through a worse evolution, being replaced with condos and apartments. The steady area has always been apartments.

COMMENT

Nobody likes these tariffs and bear market. He thinks that before Thursday when Congress steps away from its session, news from Congress or the White House a better path forward. Fingers crossed. If there's no resolution and Congress recesses, more volatility will happen. But volatility offers opportunity through lower prices, like Nvidia dipping below $90. It popped over $100 on rumours that the tariffs were on hold. You can nibble on names that are on sale now. He's cautious. Corrections always happen, so always have some dry powder. If you're worried by this sell-off, you don't have the right portfolio for your long-term goals.

COMMENT
Caller has put spreads on Canadian banks in the money, expiring April and May. To neutralize losses, should he roll these to another expiration date in June or July, or write some call spreads to turn them into Iron Condors?

Needs more details, but it sounds like the caller is hedging long exposure to his underlying bank stocks by owning put spreads (great). Depending on where the put strikes are, take your profit on the long end and expose your naked put to add to the position. Look at the price of volatility in the short run vs. what you will pay to roll those out to the back months. Needs more time to explain more. Don't sell calls here, not when the market is down.

COMMENT
Alternative to GIC to shelter cash for 1 year?

The government interest rate is 2.75%, and it's looking 60/40 for a rate cut. To do better than this, buy a dividend stock. It is what it is. There is no super-safe strategy without risk. Doesn't exist.

COMMENT
educational segment

The Pro-Eyes S&P Opportunity Index is sharply up, therefore issuing caution. But during the flash-crash of spring 2020 and other corrections, the index flashed opportunity. So, be prepared to add to your favourite names on crazy days. However, we could see a couple quarters of choppiness. What this index doesn't say is how long choppiness will last. We are oversold enough for a trading rally. Secondly, the Tactical Risk Monitor shows that we are set up for a bounce and rally, but we need a headline from the White House or Congress saying they will handle tariffs better. The rumour this morning saw markets briefly rip. Likely, the bounce will be moderate, with resistance at 5,500 on the S&P, over the next month at least. Technically, the market is very oversold. The S&P trough in 2022 to the high recently: the tariff sell-off in recent days slashed those gains in half, back to the high of 2021. Now, we have good support and a good time to buy, BUT this situation may not hold for sure. Next support is 4,500 then low-4000s. We're not free and clear yet, but this is a tradable rally now.