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COMMENT
COMMENT
January 4, 2019
Market Outlook He thinks the market sell off is a little over done. The economy is decent and he does not believe that a recession is coming soon. The recent jobs report was supportive. He feels the Fed will work well to mitigate any negative moves. Today some excellent stocks are priced 20-30% cheaper than a couple of months ago. Will we go into recession? Not anytime soon. Only the UAE market was up in 2018. 93% of all assets classes lost money -- only TBills and cash had positive returns. There was no place to hide. This means the future should bring positive returns in 2019, he believes.
General Market Comment
January 4, 2019
Market Outlook He thinks the market sell off is a little over done. The economy is decent and he does not believe that a recession is coming soon. The recent jobs report was supportive. He feels the Fed will work well to mitigate any negative moves. Today some excellent stocks are priced 20-30% cheaper than a couple of months ago. Will we go into recession? Not anytime soon. Only the UAE market was up in 2018. 93% of all assets classes lost money -- only TBills and cash had positive returns. There was no place to hide. This means the future should bring positive returns in 2019, he believes.
Tim Regan
Managing Director, Kingwest & Company
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 4, 2019
Equities vs. Bonds. An 8% earnings yield is implied in today's 12 PE ratio of the market -- the inversion of the PE ratio. The dividend can grow as well. While bonds are yielding 2-3%. He sees no contest, favoring equities going forward.
General Market Comment
January 4, 2019
Equities vs. Bonds. An 8% earnings yield is implied in today's 12 PE ratio of the market -- the inversion of the PE ratio. The dividend can grow as well. While bonds are yielding 2-3%. He sees no contest, favoring equities going forward.
Tim Regan
Managing Director, Kingwest & Company
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 4, 2019
The markets. Extreme volatility is the theme continuing from 2018. Historically there's not been this much volatility. Not a lot of conviction in the buyers. Trends are short-lived. Difficult to find bottoms with reversals. Don't ignore the bond market, which got hammered today. Still in a downward trend, broke through the support level of November/December, and that will act as resistance. December 2018 ranks #9 from the bottom of 480 observations, a 9.2% loss. We're retracing back to revaluation levels, and we'll see where we go next week.
General Market Comment
January 4, 2019
The markets. Extreme volatility is the theme continuing from 2018. Historically there's not been this much volatility. Not a lot of conviction in the buyers. Trends are short-lived. Difficult to find bottoms with reversals. Don't ignore the bond market, which got hammered today. Still in a downward trend, broke through the support level of November/December, and that will act as resistance. December 2018 ranks #9 from the bottom of 480 observations, a 9.2% loss. We're retracing back to revaluation levels, and we'll see where we go next week.
Jeff Parent B. Eng. FCSI CIM
VP & Portfolio Manager, Chief Investment Officer, Castlemoore Inc.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 4, 2019
Do you slow down US investments when CAD is weak? Likes US markets better, especially for technicians. Has 30-40% minimum in US markets, and he's not slowing down. When stocks sell off, he holds cash. CAD above 80-85 cents would cause a headache for him. But for now, he's continuing to buy US stocks. Has about 45% cash, from selling off on stops.
General Market Comment
January 4, 2019
Do you slow down US investments when CAD is weak? Likes US markets better, especially for technicians. Has 30-40% minimum in US markets, and he's not slowing down. When stocks sell off, he holds cash. CAD above 80-85 cents would cause a headache for him. But for now, he's continuing to buy US stocks. Has about 45% cash, from selling off on stops.
Jeff Parent B. Eng. FCSI CIM
VP & Portfolio Manager, Chief Investment Officer, Castlemoore Inc.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 4, 2019
When can the CAD go lower? Long-term correlation between CAD and the price of oil. Most of last year CAD was at the 75-76 cent level. He thinks the dip to 73 cents is temporary. Biggest risk for holders of US stocks is that it will get above the 77-78 cent level, so he's going to be cautious and aware of that level. On the downside, there's a lot of support. It's good for our economy. If it got below 73, he'd be very concerned, but you'd have to see a major drop in oil for that to happen.
General Market Comment
January 4, 2019
When can the CAD go lower? Long-term correlation between CAD and the price of oil. Most of last year CAD was at the 75-76 cent level. He thinks the dip to 73 cents is temporary. Biggest risk for holders of US stocks is that it will get above the 77-78 cent level, so he's going to be cautious and aware of that level. On the downside, there's a lot of support. It's good for our economy. If it got below 73, he'd be very concerned, but you'd have to see a major drop in oil for that to happen.
Jeff Parent B. Eng. FCSI CIM
VP & Portfolio Manager, Chief Investment Officer, Castlemoore Inc.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 4, 2019
Are you buying or are you wait and see right now? Biggest risk right now is not getting in. He's getting somewhat positive. Going to be deploying cash slowly, hoping for a steadier recovery instead of a sharp increase. Looking at moving above the 30 and 40-day moving averages as an initial buying point in the S&P. Support of 2627 is now resistance, and if we can get over that he'll reduce his cash position.
General Market Comment
January 4, 2019
Are you buying or are you wait and see right now? Biggest risk right now is not getting in. He's getting somewhat positive. Going to be deploying cash slowly, hoping for a steadier recovery instead of a sharp increase. Looking at moving above the 30 and 40-day moving averages as an initial buying point in the S&P. Support of 2627 is now resistance, and if we can get over that he'll reduce his cash position.
Jeff Parent B. Eng. FCSI CIM
VP & Portfolio Manager, Chief Investment Officer, Castlemoore Inc.