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December 20, 2018
Market. US stocks were the only market in the world that was going but that has now changed. Stocks leading the market are now expensive. These stocks heavily weight the market index ETFs. The FANG stocks have weakened off and they are not leadership. Things are vulnerable but we could get a reaction rally, such as a Santa clause rally. Interest rates, inflation and so on are all worries for the market. Nobody knows where to go and cash looks like a good place to be. This is a time for caution. People who are positive about where markets are going have to change before things will change.
General Market Comment
December 20, 2018
Market. US stocks were the only market in the world that was going but that has now changed. Stocks leading the market are now expensive. These stocks heavily weight the market index ETFs. The FANG stocks have weakened off and they are not leadership. Things are vulnerable but we could get a reaction rally, such as a Santa clause rally. Interest rates, inflation and so on are all worries for the market. Nobody knows where to go and cash looks like a good place to be. This is a time for caution. People who are positive about where markets are going have to change before things will change.
Norman Levine
Managing Director, Portfolio Management Corp
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 20, 2018
Energy Sector. It has been a long time since we had a recession and we are overdue for one so he cannot rule out one sometime next year or the year after. Oil is a commodity and commodities are poised to go down. He has SU-T domestically. He is underweight energy holdings. He does not think you should put more money into energy.
General Market Comment
December 20, 2018
Energy Sector. It has been a long time since we had a recession and we are overdue for one so he cannot rule out one sometime next year or the year after. Oil is a commodity and commodities are poised to go down. He has SU-T domestically. He is underweight energy holdings. He does not think you should put more money into energy.
Norman Levine
Managing Director, Portfolio Management Corp
N/A
N/A
December 20, 2018
US Debt. The US is viewed as a safety haven. As stocks come down, money goes into US bonds as a flight for safety. Money comes out of Canadian Preferreds also. Rate resets have come off quite a bit. You could buy US treasuries if you thought the Canadian dollar was going to weaken.
General Market Comment
December 20, 2018
US Debt. The US is viewed as a safety haven. As stocks come down, money goes into US bonds as a flight for safety. Money comes out of Canadian Preferreds also. Rate resets have come off quite a bit. You could buy US treasuries if you thought the Canadian dollar was going to weaken.
Norman Levine
Managing Director, Portfolio Management Corp
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 20, 2018
He's looking at the credit markets. Credit has been weaker than equities all year and has accelerating this week. Until those issues are solved by the US Fed slowing QT, but rather re-adopting QE. This is likely the end of the bull market. The catalyst was the central bank stopping QE. Overall, this has and will reduce M&A with companies becoming less attractive to private equity. Corporate buybacks will slow down, too, and will also stop fuelling the bull market.
General Market Comment
December 20, 2018
He's looking at the credit markets. Credit has been weaker than equities all year and has accelerating this week. Until those issues are solved by the US Fed slowing QT, but rather re-adopting QE. This is likely the end of the bull market. The catalyst was the central bank stopping QE. Overall, this has and will reduce M&A with companies becoming less attractive to private equity. Corporate buybacks will slow down, too, and will also stop fuelling the bull market.
James Hodgins
Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 20, 2018
Liquidate $250,000 in stocks and wait out this market downturn? He doesn't give portfolio advice, but he sees trouble ahead. The credit cycle has turned, and interest rates will--THOUGH the U.S. Fed may half further rises if the economy sharply downturns. That said, this market is grossly oversold. If we're entering a bear market, this is only getting started. He's read that 90% of CFO's expect a recession by end-2019. A downturn doesn't start this fast, though, and usually has some sort of bounce back. We'll see.
General Market Comment
December 20, 2018
Liquidate $250,000 in stocks and wait out this market downturn? He doesn't give portfolio advice, but he sees trouble ahead. The credit cycle has turned, and interest rates will--THOUGH the U.S. Fed may half further rises if the economy sharply downturns. That said, this market is grossly oversold. If we're entering a bear market, this is only getting started. He's read that 90% of CFO's expect a recession by end-2019. A downturn doesn't start this fast, though, and usually has some sort of bounce back. We'll see.
James Hodgins
Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies