Market. US stocks were the only market in the world that was going but that has now changed. Stocks leading the market are now expensive. These stocks heavily weight the market index ETFs. The FANG stocks have weakened off and they are not leadership. Things are vulnerable but we could get a reaction rally, such as a Santa clause rally. Interest rates, inflation and so on are all worries for the market. Nobody knows where to go and cash looks like a good place to be. This is a time for caution. People who are positive about where markets are going have to change before things will change.
There is a group of tech stocks that did not lead in the recent market strength in the US. OTEX-T made a few acquisitions in the year which he thinks were pretty good. The market is sitting back to see where these acquisitions go. He likes management.
One of the biggest companies in the world. Pharama and consumer products. They were hit with a multi-billion dollar law suit that their baby powder has chemicals in it rather than just talc.
Was one of the great performers in the rising markets but has been coming off. If consumer spending shows signs of slowing, then it comes right off due to a high multiple. He would not rush to buy but it is a tremendous franchise to own.
A lot of its business is in the energy patch. It is a family run company that has raised its dividend for decades. This year they paid out a special dividend. It continues to churn out the earnings so is a long term hold.
People line up on a Monday to get into this store. Their management is great and the stock was doing phenomenally. The market is not as in love with high PE stocks and they are banking on China. They were about to open their first store in Beijing. Then those two Canadians were arrested and the new store opening was put on hold.
BNS-T is the only Canadian bank he owns. RY-T is mostly Canada and the US. Bond yields coming off and the flattening yield curve with some inversion has meant they have come off. Don't expect out-performance in the near term.
Their performance has been typical of other regional banks in the US. The yield curve has taken the wind out of the banks' sails. This is a good company, although not a star. It is riskier than many others and would not be his favorite.
(A Top Pick Dec 28/17, Down 18%) Here is a company with the fundamentals correct but the market doesn't care. First there was the unfortunate tweet about Saudi Arabia. Second, there was the ethics issue from many years ago. The federal government is not letting them off easily on this one. Both things have caused the stock to tank even though it has nothing to do with current management, growth and so on. He is sticking with it. Ultimately this will go away.
(A Top Pick Dec 28/17, Down 7%) He bought more in the spring when it was down. It is down in line with the Canadian market. He thinks it is a good company to own long term.
Energy Sector. It has been a long time since we had a recession and we are overdue for one so he cannot rule out one sometime next year or the year after. Oil is a commodity and commodities are poised to go down. He has SU-T domestically. He is underweight energy holdings. He does not think you should put more money into energy.
When companies run into trouble they will come out with a laundry list of things to blame. Usually it is management. In this case the seeds of their problem go back to Jack Welch. He set up GE-N for their later fall. He made GE capital such an important part of GE-N. Recently it was set up to be a big player in power generation. One acquisition was exactly at the wrong time. He has his clients completely out of it.
US Debt. The US is viewed as a safety haven. As stocks come down, money goes into US bonds as a flight for safety. Money comes out of Canadian Preferreds also. Rate resets have come off quite a bit. You could buy US treasuries if you thought the Canadian dollar was going to weaken.