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Copper and gold. Significant FCF. Market's waiting to see what happens with its massive copper project in Arizona. Will probably need to find a partner on this one, would boost production by 50%. He hopes for shovels in the ground in 2026, then 2-3 years before first production comes online.

He's watching it for the second half of the year, waiting for an inflection point on Arizona mine news, including possible fast-tracking by the US administration.

Lower risk that E&P. It's chosen to be more active in the US, and activity levels have been a bit higher there. Q1 showed activity up 30% in US, down 30% in Canada. Now almost 70% of activity is in US. 

Sometimes a Canadian company gets its head handed to them, because it just isn't part of the culture. Smaller than peers, so trades at a discount. He'd prefer TPZ. Yield of just under 10%.

Top of the heap for what he'd want to own in terms of O&G royalty companies and infrastructure.

Second in line behind TPZ for what he'd want to own in terms of O&G royalty companies and infrastructure.

Embroiled in environmental issues. But new life under the Trump administration, so all bets are off. Gold and copper in Alaska. Stock's almost tripled since the election. Current project is massive, ~$6B. Nice to be able to get permitting, but how are they going to finance it?

Rather than owning royalty companies, he prefers the leverage of E&P companies. Attraction of royalty companies is you don't have direct commodity or operating risk, though there is indirect risk. Instead, his choice would be AEM.

Consistent theme across his Top Picks will be companies that are going to rerate, due to new projects or a shift in business.

This one has benefited from strong gold prices, but real upside will come from the Cote gold mine around Sudbury. It will start to operate at full speed by end of 2025, meaning material growth in production. Budget doubled, but all sins are forgiven because so has the price of gold since the mine opened. They'll be able to de-leverage, resulting in significant FCF in 2026 and 2027 for either buybacks or distributions. 

Key will be what happens after 2028, because their West Africa mine ends. No dividend.

Since 2020, has distributed $1.8B to shareholders (including $9.60 special distribution in 2023). Came out of its shell with an oil play in the Duvernay. Will rerate as it continues to gather scale. Easily sees 20-30% upside, even if oil stays around $60. No dividend.

Going to build a mine in Quebec, unless someone buys them. Veterans of the industry, with engineering and geological expertise, have joined the company. Has letters of intent for over $1.3B from export development companies, including Canada. 

Going through financing, which should be in place Q1 next year. Fully permitted. Probably a royalty stream on the silver portion of the mine, with maybe a bit of equity as a top up. Yes, you can put some money in and forget about it for a while. No dividend.

LB traded sideways for the past year, with a nice level of support around $24, and after its recent earnings it popped higher to $30. To help confirm an uptrend, we would like to see it rise above $32. We do not see any news regarding a potential sale, but it trades at a decent valuation of 9.5X forward earnings, and some major banks raised their price targets on the name following its recent results. Given the negative momentum and slow growth, we would prefer assessing this one from the sidelines.
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FL is now $120M market cap, up 20% this year. It has no revenue yet, losses and negative cash flow. It has about $20M cash. Insiders own 16%. The study shows a 31-year potential mine life for its PAK Ontario Lithium project.  The study talks up numbers a lot, but the expected rate of return is 17.9%, which is fairly low vs other studies, especially considering $1B in capital costs. This is not to say it is not a feasible project, but a higher IRR would be better. There is work to be done still here and of course financing will be needed. We would consider it OK, but there remains a lot of risks here too as well.
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EPS of $6.70 beat estimates of $5.80; revenue of $2.84B beat estimates of $2.79B. EBITDA of $473M beat estimates by 13%. Ulta Beauty's slight increase to fiscal 2025 sales and earnings guidance reflects better-than-expected 1Q results -- a positive signal that its bid to regain market share is working. Continued execution, including leaning into exclusive, new and higher-end brands, in coming quarters is essential, especially since the conservative outlook implies sales gains are poised to slow to an average 2% in 2Q-4Q -- less than half of 1Q's five-quarter best of 4.5%. Steady demand could allow for further surprises, especially since year-over-year comparisons should get easier. Rising costs still appear set to weigh on adjusted operating margin this year. Margin was better than anticipated in 1Q, though still lower year over year. There has certainly been an improvement here recently. Risks include continue economic uncertainty, tariffs and the usual market risks, but the stock is now up 8% YTD and we would have a bit move confidence overall.
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The Importance of Cash in an Investment Portfolio

A diversified portfolio typically includes a cash component to it, and this cash holding provides an investor with liquidity and convenience. Traditional portfolio theory suggests that investors should carry some static percentage of their portfolio in cash to act as a diversifier against volatility in one’s portfolio, for liquidity purposes to add to one’s existing bond or equity positions, or fund new purchases.

While cash in a savings account, bonds, GICs, and others, have usually offered lower yields than the returns that can be found in the stock market, the benefit that the liquidity and stability cash offers can sometimes outweigh the benefit from the higher returns that stocks offer.
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The best of the cruise lines.

Yesterday, they reported what looked like a strong quarter. Shares popped after hours, but gave back those gains today. Shares have been flat 7-8 years, now dragged down by the messy Juniper Networks takeover, sloppy execution, and now Trump's on-again, off-again tariffs. Their March report was terrible, and shares tanked. Activist Elliott Mgt., though has gotten involved, which offers some hope. Yesterday's report was good: healthy revenue beat, strength across businesses, an earnings beat, good margins. Also, their AI systems is seeing a backlog. Guidance was guarded, but overall positive. Some products are made in Mexico, but comply to the CUSMA, so tariffs will be lower than expected. The quarter was fine, beating low expectations.