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The EU is so bureaucratic and slow that he doubts they can reach a trade deal by then. Trump slapping then withdrawing tariffs is his bargaining chip while markets get whipped around. The bottom line though comes from the C-suite who won't make any deals until this all ends. This will eventually matter, but now the markets don't care. Right before Covid hit, markets were at all-time highs, though the Covid news was out there, percolating. Markets didn't care. Will we see another AHA! moment when we see notable weakness in the US economy, especially jobs? He thinks so, but nobody knows when. Another jolt like April 2 will happen in early July. Expect uncertainty and a lot of good coming, too. But he doesn't see the market going up a lot from here. In fact, markets shouldn't be ripping higher now.
Will a new Blackwell chip they will send to China be a big source of income? Doesn't know, but what is Trump's view of this deal? China can play the long game vs. the U.S. As for NVDA's earning this week, analyst estimates are spanning a broad, but not crazy $140-200. There are 68 buys, 9 holds and 1 sell. For NVDA to take out $150 resistance, their quarter must be stallar and include no worries about China--and he doesn't see that. So, the stock may retreat to around $120, but not to April's lows in the $90's.
No, but why own silver bars? Those bars are useful if there's an end of the world scenario, which is unlikely. He likes silver and sees upside as silver catches up to gold. We need silver in the electrification of the world--lots of demand.
If you're worried that economy is fragile in the face of tariffs, then the Canadian banks will take a harder hit than other sectors as the economy slows down. He's cautious the Canadian banks and added on April's weakness--but sold those positions already to be tactical and cautious.
They're popular, because people want the extra yield, but they work only in some environments. Better when you expects markets to go down for 6-12 months (a correction). In rapid declines, like Covid, you get only some protection. But in a strong market, you give you the upside and lag the market a lot. Just owning ZEB since 2011, you would have made 10.71% annualized; ZWB 8.34%. SO, use ZWB defensively at some point after a correction, say 10% or 15% down. Use ZEB in a strong rally. During strong declines, both ETFs fall roughly the same, but during the recent strong rally, ZEB was 16.98% and ZWB 14.85%.
They're popular, because people want the extra yield, but they work only in some environments. Better when you expects markets to go down for 6-12 months (a correction). In rapid declines, like Covid, you get only some protection. But in a strong market, you give you the upside and lag the market a lot. Just owning ZEB since 2011, you would have made 10.71% annualized; ZWB 8.34%. So, use ZWB defensively at some point after a correction, say 10% or 15% down. Use ZEB in a strong rally. During strong declines, both ETFs fall roughly the same, but during the recent strong rally, ZEB was 16.98% and ZWB 14.85%.
EPS of $1.00 beat estimates of 59c; revenue of $1.02B beat estimates of $1.00B. EBITDA of $215M beat estimates of $127.1M. But DECK provided a weak next-quarter forecasts and declined to provide a full-year forecast due to economic/tariff uncertainty. Deckers' fiscal 1Q sales view for 7.8-10.3% growth could still prove conservative given better-than-expected 4Q results, with sales up by mid-single digits on stronger performance at Ugg. Any upside hinges on Hoka momentum persisting globally and reaccelerating in the US. Hoka is forecast to rise by low-double digits, with Clifton 10 and Bondi 9 launches driving demand, while Ugg's spring styles and growing men's traction could support mid-single-digit brand gains. Gross margin rose 50 bps in 4Q amid higher levels of full-price selling for Ugg, yet persistent freight headwinds, channel mix shifts and higher promotions may weigh on 1Q margin. That, coupled with tariff impacts, could drag gross margin down 250 bps in 1Q. Pricing and cost actions to mitigate pressure may begin to aid margin in 2H. The big decline on Friday brings the year to -50%, and valuation to 16X earnings. Cash flow remains good. It has a strong balance sheet. We would be getting more interested here into any more declines.
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PPL fell recently on news of lower tolls, but this of course comes with the territory of a regulated business. Considering its valuation, stability, cash flow and dividends, we would be comfortable buying a full position for income primarily and some long term growth potential.
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The company is recovering from its US indiscretions, and recent earnings were good. Credit quality remains good, and recent cost-cutting efforts may help offset any potential economic weakness. The stock remains cheap with a good, secure dividend.
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Multiples Needed to Breakeven from Drawdowns
One of the most often misunderstood concepts in investing is the difference in percentages from a drawdown against an increase. For example, if a stock declines by 10%, a subsequent increase of 10% will not bring the investor back to breakeven, but rather an 11% increase in the price is required to break even. For example, a $10 stock declines by 10% to $9, a subsequent 10% rise from $9 brings the stock up to only $9.9. Below we have listed various drawdown percentages in increments of 10%, and the subsequent percentage increases needed to break even, along with their respective ‘multiples. For example, a 90% drawdown in the price of a $10 stock requires a 10X to bring the stock back up to $10.
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