COMMENT
Investing in REITs vs. condos.

For a while, people thought that condo values only went up. We're seeing now that that's not the case. People got a bit greedy. If you're buying something as an investment, it's important to know that investments can go down. As interest rates started to turn and the low trend ended, you could lose.

There's a saying that if you can't lose 30-50%, then you shouldn't be invested. But when you're buying real estate, and it's 90% leveraged, that 30-50% correction would wipe you out completely. Unfortunately, some people are going to go through that. Normalization will return to the market and, hopefully, a lot of new product. He knows a lot of young people who would like to be able to rent at a reasonable rate so they can save for a future down payment.

BUY

Likes it. Wouldn't go smaller, as this one's already quite small. Has a nice industrial component, focused more on Eastern Canada. That market's been very stable. Recent transaction in Winnipeg, and he likes that market. Since Covid, people are working online more; so "secondary" cities such as Halifax, Winnipeg, and Saskatoon are not as risky as they once were, and he likes that trend.

Great management team. Continues to expand throughout the Maritimes, now Winnipeg, and into Quebec. Getting rid of office exposure, focusing on industrial.

BUY

Maritimes and Quebec. Loves this kind of property with a Shopper's Drug Mart, a bank, a liquor store, that kind of thing. Highly respected management team, really good expertise in their sub-markets, staying in their lane. Steady investment.

BUY
Why higher implied cap rate than peers?

He scratches his head about this too. Likes it here. A bit of concern about shopping malls in general, with their sensitivity to the consumer. From what his team sees, consumers are continuing to spend $$. And it's cold up here, we love our malls. Great numbers, excellent balance sheet will provide stable returns going forward.

Does have some HBC stores. But their retail team is one of the best and should be able to unlock a lot of value with minimal investment.

BUY

Immigration is not actually being lowered, it's more that we're returning to nice, stable growth. A lot of these people are going to move to Alberta, where BEI.UN has the majority of its properties. A lot of Ontario is moving to Alberta as well. The pro-energy trend will also benefit Alberta.

In Ontario it can take 6-8 years to get permits to build an apartment building, 2 years to build, and then you're faced with rent control. Alberta is much more friendly in this regard; so rents are cheaper, and there are more rental units.

HOLD

Very well managed. Company size is in the top 5. Originally focused on the Maritimes, which has seen a lot of population inflows. Expanding into other markets in Ontario such as Kitchener-Waterloo. Likes that they're experienced developers, always improving. Energy-efficient, new construction. Not facing high-rent pressures of others.

DON'T BUY

Focused on commercial properties in Edmonton. Faced a lot of pressure as we all started working from home. It appears to be being taken private by the parent company. 

HOLD

Large apartment portfolio in US, as well as industrial. Selling down its office properties. As they get closer to that clean story, there should be some catalysts perhaps even this year. Dip in US building will give them an opportunity, especially in the Sunbelt. Fine on the financing side.

DON'T BUY

Quirky vehicle that needs to find a better home. Assets in France. Too small to be in the public market. Would be better off privatized, which should happen. Seeing nice recovery in occupancy and valuations in European office.

BUY

Similar to grocery-anchored. Suite of tenants connected to Canadian Tire. Very well structured with nice little increases in rent over time along with inflation. Really likes it. Very stable. With tariffs, he suspects that more of us will shop Canadian brands to support our Canadian economy.

SELL

Used by CAR.UN as a way to expand into Europe, but now has decided to wind it down. The drop in the chart is actually a big dividend payment. Continues to sell off properties. He sold, took profits, and redeployed in a growthier name.

DON'T BUY

Unique. Core of the portfolio is in northern Canada. A lot of the leases are pseudo-government leases for government employees. Debt is a bit too high, but the core income will help de-lever over time.

TOP PICK

Most broadly balanced across the country, though it is more focused in Ontario. Largest, so it's the most liquid; very easy to get in and out of. Selling older properties with higher energy and maintenance costs. Loves the cycle of selling old, get the capital, pay down debt, buy newer properties. Buying back stock.  

Caveat: peak rents will be coming down. The number to watch for is the apartment turnover beyond the current 16%, and this should happen over the next couple of years. It's so cheap, no need to wait to dip in. Yield is 3.70%.

(Analysts’ price target is $50.58)
TOP PICK

A bit quirky, loves it. Trailer parks in the US. Easiest access in the US for a family without a lot of income. Growing by acquisition. Rent paid for the land is very small, so a 5% increase is minimal to the tenant but nice for the investor. Inexpensive, and sees strong growth going forward. Yield is 3.47%.

(Analysts’ price target is $21.38)
TOP PICK

Very high yield. Office market's gone through a lot of pressure post-Covid. Pressure on rents and earnings. Hasn't cut dividend. Wishes they'd cut dividend during Covid, but didn't, and they're not going to cut it now (so they say). It's a waiting game of when will the office market recover? He doesn't think it's going to get worse in the main cities. It'll be a year or two of slowing improving numbers. He can handle flat when he's getting that almost 12% yield. Yield is 11.90%.

(Analysts’ price target is $17.33)