COMMENT

AI: DeepSeek's sudden emergence has cracked the bullish thesis, but demand will endure or grow. The reason is Jevons paradox (the theory that states that making a resource more efficient can lead to increased demand) and benefit the megatech companies. But DeepSeek proves that you can use older, cheaper semis than Nvidia's to get the same job done using clever software. Also, DS is open source, whereas North American AI is closed source. So, free versions readily available may be a challenge for tech companies.

BUY

It has flatlined, because it ran up last year and oil prices came off. But CNQ is in good shape: high-margin synthetic crude oil volumes are growing, exposure to the Duvernet is growing through acquisition and have options in natural gas. CNQ is one of the best oil/gas companies.

HOLD

They've had mixed results in past years. They are, though, ramping up an Ontario project to fill capacity, as they pay down their heavy debt. At $2,800 gold and at full capacity, the company expects to pay down all debt in 3 years. Stick with it. It's expected for gold to keep rising, some saying $3,000.

BUY

Oil/gas dipped on fears of US tariffs, but have recovered. ESI is diversified with half their rigs in the US. It's the third year of their 3-year debt repayment plan.

HOLD

Mid-streamers are less sensitive to US tariffs. Pipelines make money on their tolls, a service fee which faces less impact. Their 6% dividend is attractive, but their PE has returned above 20x. Shares could be rangebound or down in the near term.

DON'T BUY

The specialize in carve-outs, but the valuation is climbed too high since the company spin out.

DON'T BUY

What's changed is that in the last conference call, management suggested the dividend is under review, with the payout ratio "elevated". Institutional investors are encouraging BCE to cut it and use the savings to pay debt or fund growth. A cut could trigger a relief rally. The risk/reward isn't attractive.

BUY

Great margins and deep inventory to sell into many markets. Not growing as much as before, but stable. Offers a moderate return. A good natural gas producer.

BUY

The valuation assumes there's no growth here, but that's not true. Their CEO is applying best practices that he used when running Domino's Pizza by improving digital sales as they expand overseas, but are not as focused on China as peers.

BUY

Most attractive of the Mag 7 at 21x PE. Have many businesses--YouTube, search, Android, Chrome, Waymo. It's worth more than the current price. Their recent report noted a slowing growth rate, but they have more demand that they can handle. That's why they're investing more in capex, $75 billion into AI and data centres.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 13/24, Up 39%)

Like Brookfield, and the alternative capital sector has been doing very well with firmer equity markets and more M&A. Last week's results were very decent, and they project earnings to grow around 25% this year and fee-related earnings to grow over 20% annually over 5 hears. Their PE is lower than peers, but are growing faster.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 13/24, Down 51%)

It's a fast-growing company that slowed abruptly. US dollar stores got hammered last year. FIVE reacted by changing their CEO, and lowered store growth rate from 15% annually to 9%. It's still worth holding. They didn't blame the economy, but themselves.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 13/24, Up 14%)

Will stick with it, still trading at a discount to peers, 10.5x PE vs. 11.9x PE. Investors are regaining some confidence recently with a new CEO, big board changes, including a compliance officer from JPM. Plus, it pays a 5% dividend yield. It has underperformed, but TD has more upside as it catches up.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

EPS growth rate is 18% this and next year, strong. They lead the industry in growth.

WAIT

The tariffs could be more troubling than their troubles in recent years. Half of each plane built includes US content. So, 25% tariffs would hurt their new orders. Is surprised shares have not pulled back more. It is a solid business, though.