Today, Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA and Jim Cramer - Mad Money commented about whether KVUE-N, DXCM-Q, ASTS-Q, IONQ-N, GEV-N, LNG-A, AXP-N, DHI-N, TOL-N, PHM-N, ITB-N, SAN-N, SOFI-Q, SLB-N, DJT-Q, ZEB-T, XLF-N, FTN-T, FFN-T, T-T, ZPAY-T, ZPH-T, ZWU-T, BCE-T, DXV-T are stocks to buy or sell.
Leverage allows them to provide such a large dividend. Typically 2:1 leverage, so you get double the bang for the buck. Lots of volatility, big ups and big downs. When markets are working, work great. Up to the board of the fund as to what distribution they pay out.
Over 20 years, you'd have done better just holding a basket of US or Canadian banks, such as XLF or ZEB.
Leverage allows them to provide such a large dividend. Typically 2:1 leverage, so you get double the bang for the buck. Lots of volatility, big ups and big downs. When markets are working, work great. Up to the board of the fund as to what distribution they pay out.
Over 20 years, you'd have done better just holding a basket of US or Canadian banks, such as XLF or ZEB.
Last week, Stan Druckenmiller said that markets have started to price in a Trump victory. Let's unpack that.
A bunch of smart people created an (untradeable) index that lists the companies that would benefit the most or least from a Trump win. Since July 21, when Biden dropped out of the election and Harris got a big bump in the polls, the companies based on a Trump win initially came down.
Since July 21, the total US market has gone up. But the stocks that would benefit most from a Trump victory are still down. Originally, Trump was going to win against Biden; whereas now it's a lot closer against Harris. But recently, a Trump victory is heading up.
On a long/short chart, you're long the companies if Trump wins, and short the companies if he loses. Since July, the chart was initially down, but recently stronger. So the charts have turned.
Look to polling and predictive markets, where people can make a bet on who's going to win the election. If Trump wins you get paid, and if he loses you get $0. A chart on the predictive market initially showed higher probability of a Harris win, but recently things have gone the other way. Markets are thinking now that Trump is going to win. If you look at polling from a company like Five ThirtyEight, for example, they're now saying that Trump's ahead.
So lots of indications that Trump's going to win. But it's a Trump sweep of both the House and Senate, and the Presidency, that would be the worst outcome for the market. Right now, Senate's looking like 51 seats for Republicans. The House race is going to be very close, but best guess right now is that both House and Senate go GOP.
Best outcome for the market would be Harris in the White House, split Congress with gridlock and not a lot of spending. The bond market, such as TLT, is trading as though it'll be a Trump sweep. He's all about cutting taxes, which means more debt financing, and that's inflationary.
Larry's all for putting $$ back in people's pockets, but that will limit the Fed's ability to cut rates, and the market's not priced for this right now. If we get a sweep, initially markets will rally. He'd recommend selling, not buying, into that rally. The cost of money would go up, the Fed would be less accommodative, and that will eventually hit equity multiples. Now, he can't tell you exactly when.
Bond yields are backing up. Someone came out today with a 5% US 10-year bond. If Trump loses, he's probably going to jail. If he loses, the Trump Media stock, DJT, will be worth nothing. If he wins, the stock will keep going. If it breaks below $25, bearish on Trump until election. If it keeps going higher, Trump's going to win.
70% Canadian utilities, 30% US. Includes companies such as pipelines, telcos, and traditional utilities in the energy creation and delivery space like ENB. Holds about 15-20 stocks, but with the option overlay to get the extra yield. So it's a combination of that that makes up your 60 holdings. Not a lot of turnover.
He recently trimmed exposure. Very interest-rate sensitive. So as bond yield go up in the short term in the US, there are headwinds in front of us. The pipeline component is more sensitive to the energy space, which is coming under a bit of short-term pressure. Hurting performance in recent years has been the likes of BCE, formerly a $60 company but now $45.
A basket of really good companies, high yielder. A range trader, not a bond alternative.